If after losing three out of four to the Rockies you were expecting that a series against an actual winning team would go poorly, you could probably be forgiven. I can’t say that I went into it with high expectations, and yet, here we are on the other side of a series win against the Guardians. Not much changed for the Diamondbacks as a result. They’re still four games under .500. They’re still 5.5 games behind the Mets for the final Wild Card spot. It was still good to see some fight from the team, and maybe give some hope that we’ll see some solid baseball as we head towards the Winter of Discontent.
They face another contender next. The Cincinnati Reds come to Phoenix just a single loss behind the Mets. With that in mind, the Diamondbacks will have their best chance to play spoiler yet, even better than when they took down the struggling Rangers. This is a Reds team that is in the thick of it, and the Diamondbacks can spend three games mucking that up. It wouldn’t hurt how their final standing position will look either, for what it’s worth.
Game 1 — 8/22, 6:40 PM — Ryne Nelson (6-3, 3.58 ERA, 121 ERA+, 1.07 WHIP) vs. Zack Littell (9-8, 3.52 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP)
Nelson has been on a bit of a rough streak recently. After four straight starts of two earned runs or fewer, he gave up five in Texas and four in Colorado. Of course, the obvious caveat of Coors is there, but that’s still two subpar starts in a row for the otherwise consistent and reliable Nelson. An interesting thing to note is that he did not walk a batter in either of those starts. I’m not sure if that makes it better or worse, if I’m being honest.
Littell just joined the Reds, coming from the Tampa Bay Rays. This will be his fourth start, with mixed results in the first three. In his first start, he made a great first impression, going seven innings of three hit, one run ball. However, in his second start, he didn’t make it out of the fifth and gave up four runs. Third time around he flipped it back again and went six innings of four hits and one run. That back and forth has been fairly normal for him this season, but more often than not he’s landed on that one run side of the coin. We’ll see if the Diamondbacks offense can handle him.
Game 2 — 8/23, 5:10 PM — Nabil Crismatt (0-0, 1.80 ERA, 258 ERA+, 0.80 WHIP) vs. Andrew Abbott (8-3, 2.28 ERA, 199 ERA+, 1.07 WHIP)
Crismatt made his season debut against the Rockies, throwing an impressive five innings where he gave up just a single run scored before the bullpen imploded and lost us the game. He’s bounced around the league for the last few years, including a two inning relief appearance for the Diamondbacks back in 2023. In 2024 he made five appearances with the Dodgers, but nothing seems to be stopping him from finishing the season in the Diamondbacks rotation at this point.
Andrew Abbott is having a phenomenal year. That 199 ERA+ is the best in all of baseball right now. His more than a full run worse than his ERA, so perhaps a little luck, but you don’t get that good without luck, so I wouldn’t read to much into it. Fifteen of his 22 starts have seen him give up one earned run or fewer with essentially six innings pitched per start on average. He is going to be a problem for the Diamondbacks offense, but he’s not untouchable. Milwaukee, Philly, and the Cubs have all gotten to him for more than four earned runs this season, so it is possible.
Game 3 — 8/24, 1:10 PM — Zac Gallen (9-13, 5.28 ERA, 82 ERA+, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Brady Singer (11-9, 4.18 ERA, 109 ERA+, 1.30 WHIP)
Gallen has been better of late. For the month of July, he had a 5.10 ERA. In August, that number has plummeted 3.52. That’s skewed by a one run outing against the Rockies at Chase, but even when you take that into consideration, his worst outing was three runs in six innings. That would have been his third best in July. Baby steps.
Singer is in his first season with the Reds, having spent the first five years of his career with Kansas City. He’s pitched well enough, pretty much in line with his career norms. Only real thing that stands out from a perusal of his BR page is that his walks are up, something that the Diamondbacks will hopefully be able to take advantage of.
It’s going to be a tough series. None of the three pitchers could be considered bad, and Abbott is one of the best in baseball right now. Nelson gives us a good shot in Game 1, and if Gallen continues to be his improved version of himself, that’s a decent start there. Not holding much hope though. Diamondbacks lose 2-1