The Tampa Bay Rays (63-67) and the Cleveland Guardians (64-65) begin a 3-game series Monday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Rays won 4-3 in 2024

The Rays took 2 of 3 games from the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, including a 7-2 victory in Sunday’s series finale. LF Chandler Simpson went 2-for-3 with a triple, walk, run scored and 2 RBIs from the leadoff spot. All-Star 3B Junior Caminero was 1-for-4 with a grand slam, while DH Christopher Morel ended up 3-for-4 with a solo homer.

The Guardians were swept in a 3-game set in Texas, including shutout losses to the Rangers in each of the final 2 outings over the weekend. To make matters worse, Cleveland had just 3 hits in Saturday’s 10-0 loss, and 5 hits in Sunday’s 5-0 setback. The team’s last RBI came Friday, when 3B Jose Ramirez drove in 2 runs, and OF-1B CJ Kayfus drove in another.

Cleveland has dropped 5 games in a row, slipping a game under .500 again. And, the Guardians have dropped 8 of the past 9 games since Aug. 15, while scoring 3 or fewer runs in 4 games in a row. They’ve been shut out 3 times in the past 9 outings, too.

Tampa Bay has scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight games, while holding a 6-5 edge in the past 11 games. The Over is on a 5-0-1 roll in the past 6 games, while going 10-2-1 in the past 13 outings.

Rays at Guardians projected starters

LHP Ian Seymour vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Seymour (1-0, 3.86 ERA) makes his first MLB start, and 13th career appearance. The rookie has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 23 1/3 innings.

Last appearance: 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 13-3 home loss vs. New York Yankees last TuesdayLast 7 games: 0-0, 4.91 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 5 BB, 18 K, 1.09 WHIP in 7 relief appearances2025 road stats: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 BB, 16 K, 0.95 WHIP in 8 relief appearancesHas never faced Guardians

Bibee (9-9, 4.62 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 142 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 6-5 road loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks last TuesdayLast 7 starts: 5-0, 5.31 ERA (39 IP, 23 ER), 13 BB, 39 K, 1.46 WHIP2025 home stats: 3-3, 3.19 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 5 HR, 16 BB, 51 K, 1.15 WHIP in 10 startsCareer vs. Rays: 1-1, 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, 0 BB, 14 K, 1.15 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 2 starts

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Rays at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:43 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rays +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Guardians -150 (bet $150 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-190) | Guardians -1.5 (+154)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)Rays at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Rays 5, Guardians 2

The RAYS (+125) are worth a look as road underdogs in this series opener.

Tampa Bay picked up the pace a little in the St. Louis series, especially in the final 2 games at home. On the flip side, the Guardians have been shut out in 2 straight games, while winning just once in the past 9 outings. Trust the hotter team.

The Rays +1.5 (-190) is a little expensive, if you would like a little bit of insurance, and is priced just over my limit.

As an underdog, Tampa Bay is just 2-7 in the past 9 games on the run line, so take it easy and don’t get carried away. The Rays are 7-6 in the past 13 road games as a ‘dog, however.

UNDER 8 (-115) is worth playing lightly, despite Tampa Bay’s Over ways lately.

We’re betting against Cleveland’s flagging offense, which was blanked in each of the past 2 games, while averaging just 2.0 runs per game in the previous 9 outings.

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