The Minnesota Twins have some decisions to make for next year. One big question mark is who will make up the five-man starting rotation. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober should be locks for three of these spots.
On the other hand, López will be coming off a shoulder injury that has cost him almost three months. He has made two rehab starts so far and will eventually be back with the Twins, barring any setbacks. It’s not a calamity, but nor is it encouraging, either now or looking into next season.
Ober’s situation is interesting; a hip injury took away his whole month of July, with a decrease in velocity, and his ineffectiveness might lead to a minor adjustment in the offseason. Ober has battled back with a decent August. Through four starts, his ERA is 4.09, with a very respectable 19:3 K/BB ratio. Regardless of what happens, his elite chase rate and his ability to throw strikes should earn him a spot in the rotation.
Of course, the biggest question looming over these three is whether any of them will be traded this winter, but for now, let’s assume that each will be around and ready to take the ball next March. That leaves two spots to distribute, among a whole lot more than two interesting arms.
Rotation Rumble: Who Will Win the Final Two Spots?
At a glance, there will be five pitchers who should be considered for the last two spots. Zebby Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Mick Abel, and Taj Bradley should all be in the running for the final two spots. Let’s take a look at each pitcher’s case.
You would think Woods Richardson would be a favorite for one of these spots, but he battled ineffectiveness, which landed him in Triple A at one point in the first half of this campaign. An illness has cost him most of August. He has made two rehab starts and could be called back up to the Twins soon, though, so he has a chance to reestablish himself as a candidate in good standing before the end of the season. He’s still only 24 years old, and even in this tough year, he sports a respectable ERA of 4.24. If he can prove he can throw more strikes and work deeper into games, he should lock down one of those spots.
Matthews has seen a nice uptick in velocity, which has earned him more strikeouts up in the zone. His slider has been his main out pitch, and a very reliable pitch for him this year. Opponents’ .165 batting average and .278 expected slugging average are very encouraging numbers, but his location needs some improvement. Hitters have a .391 average and a .463 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against Mathews’s fastball. You can see in the chart below where he pitches the best, and where he runs into trouble. There’s a needle-threading problem here: he thrives when he can locate to the arm side of the plate, especially up in the zone, but there have been too many misses out of the zone in that direction—and too many just in the other direction, right down the middle. He might be a candidate for a realignment, sliding him over on the pitching rubber to create new angles of attack.
Festa is a lot like Wood Richardson. If he can locate his pitches better earlier in the counts and get a few more whiffs, he will see his splits drop significantly. He has good velocity with his fastball, but numbers say hitters are seeing it and hitting it hard. I don’t know if the change in arm angle has anything to do with it, but it could be something for him to look at in the offseason. His plus changeup has developed into an excellent third pitch, with a 44% Whiff rate. It’s good to have a put-away pitch like Festa has, and it should help him get noticed even more for a starting spot.
Abel and Bradley didn’t turn heads in their Twins debuts, but both are still only 24 years old and will get an opportunity to improve. They might be dark horses to get the last two spots, but they both have major-league experience, and both have the stuff to develop into mid-rotation guys if just one or two adjustments come together the right way. They have good velocity on their fastballs, and each commands a really good curveball, both generating over 30% whiff rates. The need for them to throw more strikes and keep developing other secondary pitches might be the reason they start in Triple-A next year.
It’s good for the Twins to have options, considering the injuries they have endured this season. With that being said, who would you like to see get the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation next year? Send in your comments or suggestions below.
