Since the All-Star break, the Minnesota Twins have struggled to find a consistent footing. Losses have piled up, and the standings have grown more discouraging by the day. While no fan enjoys watching their team tumble, the Twins’ recent skid has at least one hidden benefit: improving their draft stock for 2026. If a team is going to be bad, it pays to be really bad.
How the Lottery Works in Minnesota’s Favor
The 2026 MLB Draft lottery is scheduled for early December, and Minnesota has quietly positioned itself to get access to an elite talent. As of this week, the Twins sit with the third-best odds (15.3%) of landing the No. 1 overall selection, a potential franchise-altering opportunity.
Despite being tied with the Orioles for the fifth-worst record in the league, the Twins benefit from MLB’s draft eligibility rules. Both the Rockies and Nationals sit below Minnesota in the standings, but because each has picked near the top in consecutive drafts, they are barred from drafting inside the top 10 next summer. That quirk bumps the Twins up the board even without sinking entirely to the bottom.
The Race Below the White Sox
The White Sox have effectively locked down the worst record in the AL, even while playing near .500 since the break. It would be almost impossible for the Twins to finish below Chicago, as Minnesota sits over 10 games up in the standings. That leaves Minnesota jockeying with the Pirates, O’s and Atlanta Braves for positioning behind them.
Atlanta was expected to be in contention this year, but has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. Pittsburgh has shown some fight in recent weeks, with an above-.500 record, lightening its schedule down the stretch and opening the door for the Twins to climb as high as second in the lottery odds.
Of course, it’s just as easy to slide backward. The Braves, Athletics, Orioles, and Marlins are all within a couple of games of Minnesota, meaning any late-season winning streak could quickly hurt their draft position. Below is the 2026 MLB Draft Lottery simulator from Tankathon, as of games played on August 27, 2025.
Who Are the Top Available Draft Prospects in 2026?
The prize of next year’s draft is expected to be UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, a polished defender with legitimate power after hitting 23 home runs as a sophomore. He compiled a .353/.480/.710, while being named an All-American. There’s always a chance that his performance drops during his junior year, but he is lined up to be a top-five pick.
Alabama’s Justin Lebron is on nearly the same level as Cholowsky, as a collegiate shortstop, and could easily move up the draft board based on his 2026 season. Last season, he posted a 1.058 OPS and hit 18 home runs in the competitive SEC. Many evaluators believe he can stick at shortstop, and he fits the profile of players the Twins have targeted with their first-round picks over the last two seasons (Kaelen Culpepper, Marek Houston).
High school players Jacob Lombard and Grady Emerson are also generating early top-10 buzz. Lombard is the brother of Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr. He grades as an 80 runner and is considered a five-tool talent. Emerson has a similar profile, with budding power from the left side.
The Twins know how valuable a draft lottery jump can be. Just two years ago, the franchise vaulted up eight spots to secure Walker Jenkins, who is now their consensus top prospect and a cornerstone of their long-term plans. Another opportunity to ensnare that type of talent could significantly shift the organization’s future trajectory.
Minnesota Twins Recent Top-10 Picks
Player
Pick, Draft Year
Walker Jenkins, OF
5th Overall, 2023
Brooks Lee, SS
8th Overall, 2022
Royce Lewis, SS
1st Overall, 2017
Tyler Jay, LHP
6th Overall, 2015
Nick Gordon, SS
5th Overall, 2014
Kohl Stewart, RHP
4th Overall, 2013
Byron Buxton, OF
2nd Overall 2012
A Bitter But Understandable Silver Lining
No player in the Twins clubhouse is taking the field hoping to lose, and it’s clear this stretch of games has been tough on both the roster and fans. Add in uncertainty around ownership, and the mood around Target Field has rarely felt this bleak. Still, in the big picture, each loss brings with it a brighter possibility come December.
The Twins’ draft fate won’t erase the frustration of a lost season, but if recent struggles lead to another cornerstone talent like Jenkins, the pain of 2025 may look more like a necessary step in shaping a stronger future.
How low will the Twins fall in the standings? Can they earn the top overall pick in next year’s draft? Leave a comment and start the discussion.