Should the Baltimore Orioles decide to trade Adley Rutschman this upcoming winter, the Pittsburgh Pirates would be a logical trade partner.
The Pirates need hitting, and Rutschman, a 27-year-old catcher, would be a boost to their lineup. The Orioles need starting pitching, and the Pirates have plenty of it.
So, it makes sense for Pirates general manager Ben Cherington to inquire about Rutschman. Though Rutschman is having a disappointing season, he was an All-Star in 2023 and 2024, and the Orioles selected him first overall in the 2019 amateur draft from Oregon State.
Trading for Rutschman comes with some risk despite his pedigree.
His bWAR has gone from 5.4 as a rookie in 2022 to 4.3 to 3.4 and down to 1.7 this season. Rutschman has been on the injured list this season with strains of the left and right obliques and is hitting just .227/.310/.373 with nine home runs in 85 games.
Rutschman also had a bad second half last season with a slash line of .207/.282/.303 with three homers in 58 games.
The question is whether Rutschman is in the decline phase of his career at an early age, or has he just hit a rough patch? With that in mind, it would be a gamble for the Pirates to trade for Rutschman.
The Pirates, though, need offense badly as they are last in the major leagues in runs scored. They must consider taking risks in trades because owner Bob Nutting has consistently shown that the Pirates will not spend significantly on free agents.
Rutschman would not be cheap. He is earning $5.5 million this season. He has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he can become a free agent, at which point he would likely earn between $20 million-$25 million combined in 2026 and 2027.
The Orioles aren’t going to give Rutschman away, despite his struggles. They would want a quality starting pitcher in a trade as they have fallen to the bottom of the American League East standings after consecutive postseason appearances.
The logical pitcher for the Pirates to trade is right-hander Mitch Keller. The Orioles need to add proven starters to their rotation, and Keller will still have three years and $56 million remaining on his contract after this season.
The Pirates have plenty of affordable in-house options to slot behind Paul Skenes in their rotation. The Pirates could use the money they save on Keller to pay Rutschman and have some remaining to acquire more hitting talent.
The Pirates could also add a prospect to sweeten the deal.
Low-A Bradenton first baseman Tony Blanco Jr., who has hit seven home runs in 23 games while missing most of the season with a leg injury, could interest the Orioles. The 20-year-old has impressive raw power, but Baseball America does not rank him among the Pirates’ top 30 prospects.
Rutschman is no longer the sure thing he once was, but he would still be an upgrade at catcher over Joey Bart and Henry Davis.
When a franchise is on its way to a 29th losing season in 33 years, it has nothing to lose by taking a shot on a player like Rutschman.