It’s time to forget about the most recent game, the Cubs’ possible pitching woes, and Craig Counsell‘s game management for a second. The Cubs are 76-58, 18 games over .500 and just 1.0 games out from having the second-best record in the National League. Fangraphs gives the squad a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. Barring an epic collapse, we will be watching the Cubs in October. 

As such, there are a number of scenarios that could await the Cubs once the postseason begins. We’ll go from the best-case scenario first and then get progressively worse after that. 

First of all, a quick refresh on the playoff system. Wild Card series are best-of-three, and played in the home stadium of the higher seeded team. The NLDS will be a best-of-five series, with three games played in the higher seed’s home. All other series are best of seven, with four games in the higher seeded park.

Scenario 1: Cubs win NL Central
Fangraphs does have Milwaukee at 92.8% projected odds to win the division, so this is rather unlikely. However, the Cubs in 2023 had similar odds to make the playoffs and, of course, did not. The Brewers are dealing with a bit of adversity as well. While winning four of their last ten games is less than ideal for them, losing closer Trevor Megill due to a flexor strain makes it sting just a bit more. Andrew Vaughn has a .595 OPS over the past fourteen days and likely will return to the bench when Rhys Hoskins returns. However, they should be buoyed by Jackson Chourio‘s return, and the bullpen figures to have the depth to manage.

This is unlikely, but if it does work out that the Cubs win their division, they likely would finish with the top seed in the Senior Circuit, meaning they’d get a bye in the Wild Card Round. There’s only a 7% chance here, but baseball is baseball and it could happen. The team they would be hosting would be dictated by the Wild Card Round results.

Scenario 2: Cubs nail down first NL Wild Card
This is the most likely based on statistical projections. They would then face the fifth seed in the National League. Currently, that team is the San Diego Padres, two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The New York Mets lurk, with a 4.5-game lead over the nearest contender, the Cincinnati Reds. 

This seems like a good time to see how the Cubs match up with all three of these squads.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

This is the worst-case scenario for Chicago. The Dodgers have had a post-Series slump all season and haven’t seemed truly locked in to their true talent projections. At this point, they are healthy in their starting rotation and it’s truly fearsome. Imagine the hitters’ meetings going in to a series facing these pitchers:

Game 1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .2.90 ERA, 157 K in 139 2/3 IP

Game 2: Tyler Glasnow: 3.36 ERA, 75 K in 62 IP

Game 3: Blake Snell: 1.97 ERA in his healthy six games 

Game 4: Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, and the bullpen.

Do you see my point here? This is a championship-level rotation if they stay healthy. The Cubs, featuring Matthew Boyd, rookie Cade Horton, and Shota Imanaga have room in the discussion, but they are blown out of the water by this group.

Offensively, the lineup is still top-heavy, with Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith having typical seasons. Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez loom as dangerous hitters with playoff experience, despite their batting averages still hanging out in the .240 range. Max Muncy has also been resurgent since he started wearing glasses. Really, only Michael Conforto has failed to contribute.

Breathe here, people, just a bit. As things currently stand, Cubs would not face this team until the NLCS. In that world, if the Cubs were to defeat the Padres (more coming on them momentarily), the Brewers would stand in their way. Daunting, perhaps, but the Cubs can enter that series with confidence that they are on the same level.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

The Padres are a bit of a harder team to figure out. The name brand value of their players is quite high. The production for nearly every player is slightly lower than you would expect. For sure, though, they would be a tough matchup. Look at this rotation, and keep in mind that the Wild Card series is, at most, just three games long:

Dylan Cease: 4.82 ERA but 3.73 FIP, 11.6 K/9 innings

Nick Pivetta: 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, 9.5 K/9

Michael King (currently out with knee injury): 2.81 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

That’s a formidable trio. Now factor in that they only may need 4-5 innings from a starter with this elite bullpen: Jason Adam, Wandy Peralta, former Cub Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, and closer Robert Suarez. Adam, Suarez, and Morejon were named to the All-Star team this year, Estrada has a 12.7 K/9, and Peralta a 2.73 ERA. Oh, and they acquired human flamethrower Mason Miller at the trade deadline.

Pitching would make the Padres a tough out for the Cubs. The lineup is solid, featuring bats like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Jackson Merrill has had an injury-plagued campaign, but the talent is electric. It’s not hard to imagine him making noise in October. Add experienced bats in Xander Bogaerts, hit merchant Luis Arraez, and solid former Orioles Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn, and this would be a toss-up at best in a three-game series.

The New York Mets seem to have a lock on the sixth seed. At this point, the Cubs are unlikely to face them in the first round. If the Phillies phalter (sorry) with the loss of Zach Wheeler and decline of Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola continuing, the positions could flip. My brain can’t handle these permutations right now, though, so it seems like it’s the Padres, then possibly the Dodgers. The time to worry about the Phillies or Mets is not now.

The Padres could pass the Cubs, as they are only 1.0 game behind. This would be significant if you are just now learning that the entire series is in the higher seed’s home park. Tom Ricketts is likely dreaming of this event; picture him swimming Scrooge McDuck-style through the piles of revenue this would generate. Surely he would repurpose the money earned from a Wild Card into the team next season, blowing past the luxury tax, right?

Cub fans, you have permission to get excited. For the first true season since 2018, the Cubs are going to be in the playoffs. It will be a tough hill to climb, as it always is. Just keep this reality in mind the next time Counsell has a dumb lineup, Dansby Swanson leaves men on base, or a reliever blows a lead.

Prediction: Feel free to keep receipts.

The Brewers fade a little bit, but a 6.5-game lead in September keeps them in the division race. The Dodgers and Phillies round out the division winners.

The Padres likely win the home field advantage vs. the Cubs, cursing Cub fans with a 10pm eastern start time, or it could be at 4:07, right during work! The Mets easily win the sixth seed.

So, here’s the Cubs’ most likely scenarios: Either a home series vs. the Padres, or a long trip to San Diego for a best-of-three with this solid squad. A division win and a bye are probably out of reach at this point, but it is still in the realm of possibility.

Enjoy the last month of the season! October awaits.