The New York Mets (73-64) and Detroit Tigers (80-58) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Comerica Park in Detroit is set for 1:10 p.m ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Tigers won 2 of 3 last season

The Mets head to Detroit after dropping 3 of 4 games at home to the Miami Marlins, capped by a 5-1 loss on Sunday as heavy -190 favorites as the Under (8) cashed. Despite the skid, New York still maintains control of the final NL Wild Card spot, holding a 4-game cushion.

The Tigers return home after a tough 6-game road trip where they lost 4 contests, but they closed strong with a 5-0 win over the Kansas City Royals. Detroit cashed as a -165 favorite in that finale with the Under (7) hitting. Despite the recent struggles, the AL Central leaders still sit in prime position, holding a 1/2-game lead for the top seed in the AL playoffs.

Mets at Tigers projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Manaea (1-2, 5.01 ERA) is making his ninth start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 41 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 6-5 win against the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday2025 road stats: 0-2, 5.29 ERA (17 IP, 10 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 4 games (3 starts)Career vs. Tigers: 3-2, 3.35 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 7 starts; last in 2024

Morton (9-10, 5.25 ERA) is making his 23rd start and 29th appearance. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 128 2/3 innings with the Tigers and Baltimore Orioles.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR in 7-6 loss at the Atlanta Braves Tuesday2025 home stats: 5-4, 5.03 ERA (68 IP, 38 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 15 games (11 starts)Last start vs. Mets: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 3-1 victory July 10 with BaltimoreCareer vs. Mets: 7-7, 3.75 ERA (139 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 26 games (25 starts)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Mets at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Tigers +1.5 (-175)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Mets at Tigers picks and predictionsPrediction

Tigers 4, Mets 3

LEAN TIGERS (+100).

This matchup is about as tight as it gets, and while my lean is toward Detroit, it’s not one I’d hit too hard. Both teams have been inconsistent since the All-Star break after strong first halves, and both starters carry questions. Manaea is still settling in after a late start to the season, while Morton struggled badly early on but has gradually found his form.

Narratives are at play too. The Tigers are trying to prove their first-half success wasn’t a fluke, while the Mets are once again under pressure to avoid a disappointing finish. Detroit has been excellent at home this season, which gives them the slight edge here, while New York has struggled away from Citi Field with a 28-37 road record.

For me, the lean is on the Tigers at home, but the stronger angle might be the total rather than a side.

PASS.

I have no interest in touching this run line at all.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

The Under is my play on Labor Day. It has cashed in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the Mets and Tigers, showing a clear trend toward lower scoring when these teams face off. Detroit has hit the Under in each of its last 4 games. Given both recent form and head-to-head history, the smart wager is to ride the Under once again.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.