If you took care of business all year long, you’d never blink twice about a 5-4 road trip, even against three non-playoff teams. But the Cubs have bobbed along right around .500 over their last 49 games. That’s going on a two month long stretch. This trip saw the Cubs lose some winnable games. They ran into a Giants team playing well after their own stretch of underachieving. Then today, they had a rough Denver game. That’s not normally all that frustrating, but as the Rockies sit with the worst record in baseball, it’s tough to take.
For what it’s worth, if anyone is looking for the silver lining, the Rockies are 39-98 (.285). They win a little less than 30 percent of the games they play. The Cubs won five of six against them. If you don’t do math quickly in your head, that means the Cubs won 83 percent of the games they played against the Rockies. That’s one of the fun things about small samples next to big samples. But this would be better than that expectation. So in the aggregate, this was fine. The one loss being on the road, that feels right too. This silver lining doesn’t fix anything.
The other silver lining was the Cubs offense actually coming off of the mat. Down three, the Cubs got a walk, a single and a three-run homer. So often during this downturn, one of the problems has been the Cubs just rolling over and playing dead after allowing a run. With apologies to the anti-Ian Happ faction of Cub Nation, Happ had a clutch three-run, game-tying homer. Even with the homer, the wRC+ hangs out at 109. There’s no question Happ has been down this year, but his homer total is the fifth highest of his career, passing 2022. With a reasonable September, he’ll reach 20 homers for the fifth time. With a good one, this will move into at least fourth place on his career.
Before this game even happened, I had some creeping concerns about Daniel Palencia. He was terrific Saturday night and I hoped that he had maybe turned a corner. But he got beat really fast on a tie game today. I love Daniel’s stuff. I love his makeup. I love his moxie. Craig Counsell just inserting him as closer without really being traditionally groomed for the job was wild to me. And then after blowing his first opportunity, he just shoved. There’s a learning curve and he’s still learning hard lessons. Hopefully, he bounces and can still be very good. The last two guys who spent chunks of time at closer, Adbert Alzolay and Porter Hodge, had meteoric rises and falls. I’d hate to see Palencia follow that.
I’m also a little concerned with Matthew Boyd. He’s had a rough August. I don’t know if he’s wearing down, if some luck is evening out or it is a little bit of a fluke. It’s probably some of all of it. But it’s a shame to lose it. Craig Counsell has one month to try to get a lot of guys right. One of the biggest decisions facing him will be who takes the ball in Game 1 of the playoffs. Or Game 2, for that matter.
Shake this one off. Come back home and win some games.
Cubs: 141, 37 BF (8 IP)Rockies: 126, 35 BF
The Cubs approached 18 pitches per inning. Boyd’s start wasn’t awful. But Hodge’s seventh inning was a real adventure. The Rockies were right on 14 pitches per inning. That’s a reasonably effective number. Cub pitchers allowed 11 batters over the minimum. The Rockies allowed 10 batters over the minimum. Actually, both teams had pretty good sequencing to have a 6-5 game without a real ton of traffic.
Caleb Thielbar recorded three outs on only eight pitches. Palencia only threw four pitches. I don’t know about Hodge being available for a day or two, but his spot on the roster, in general, might be in question. He’s just not effective and this team is on a playoff track.
Kyle Tucker was on base all day long with three hits, one a double. He scored once.Ian Happ for the game-tying homer.Seiya Suzuki had a two-run double early.
Game 137, August 31: Rockies 6, Cubs 5 (78-59)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
Superhero: Ian Happ (.186). 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, RHero: Caleb Thielbar (.123). IP, 3 BF, HSidekick: Kyle Tucker (.115). 3-4, 2B, RBilly Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.335). 0 IP, 2 BF, 2 H, ERGoat: Willi Castro (-.135). 0-4Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.132). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s three-run, game-tying homer. (.291)
*Rockies Play of the Game: Mickey Moniak’s walk-off RBI triple. (.265)
Yesterday’s Winner: Daniel Palencia 36-30 over Ian Happ (97 votes total).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +28Shōta Imanaga +22Matthew Boyd +20Jameson Taillon +16Michael Busch +15.67Julian Merryweather -15Carson Kelly -18Ben Brown -19Dansby Swanson -26.33Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 2). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 5). Reds win (Cubs up 10). The Reds need to finish 21-4 to reach 90 wins. The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 17 with 25 to go.
Up Next: The 62-75 Braves await the Cubs at Wrigley Field. They’ve lost six of 10. Only five teams have lost more games. But the Braves haven’t packed it in and decided to chase a top 3 pick in next year’s draft. It’s hard to imagine their contention window is totally closed. They battled a ton of injuries this year and it feels like they could notch a top pick and still try to bounce back next year. The Cubs haven’t faced the Braves yet and will now face them six times in 10 days.
Colin Rea (10-6, 4.23, 132) starts for the Cubs. He was 2-1 with a 4.15 (26 IP) in August. Righty Spencer Strider (5-12, 4.95, 96.1 IP) starts for the Braves. Spencer’s season is one he surely wants to forget. He only started four games in August, but was 0-4 with a 10.13.
Another game the Cubs should win. Hopefully they do.