The Cleveland Guardians (68-68) and the Boston Red Sox (77-62) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday at Fenway Park in Boston. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1

The Guardians lost 6-4 in the series opener Monday, as the Red Sox won as moderate favorites (-135) as the Over (8) cashed. Boston SS Trevor Story went 3-for-4 with a solo homer, walk and 2 RBIs, and the 3-4-5-6 hitters each had at least 2 hits, going 9-for-17 with 3 runs scored, 2 walks, a double, a home run and 3 RBIs.

Cleveland LF Steven Kwan ended up 3-for-5 with a double out of the leadoff spot, while 1B Kyle Manzardo went 1-for-4 with a solo homer, his 24th. SS Brayan Rocchio finished 1-for-4 with 2 RBIs out of the 9-hole. However, Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello posted his 11th victory (5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K).

After winning 4 games in a row, the Guardians have dropped 2 in a row. The Under is 6-4-1 across the past 11 outings, although the Over hit in the series opener Monday.

The Red Sox 6-2 in the past 8 games, while going 9-3 across the previous 12 outings. The Under is on a 6-2 run in the past 8 outings, too.

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Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Slade Cecconi vs. LHP Garrett Crochet

Cecconi (5-6, 4.41 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 102 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home win in 10 innings vs. Tampa Bay Rays Aug. 27Last 7 starts: 0-2, 5.35 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 8 BB, 25 K, 1.32 WHIP2025 road stats: 4-3, 3.42 ERA (50 IP, 19 ER), 8 HR, 12 BB, 48 K, 1.16 WHIP in 9 startsHas never faced Red Sox

Crochet (14-5, 2.40 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 through 172 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 7 K in 3-2 road win vs. Baltimore Orioles Aug. 28Last 7 starts: 4-1, 2.93 ERA (43 IP, 14 ER), 8 BB, 54 K, 1.14 WHIP2025 home stats: 4-3, 2.33 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 9 HR, 20 BB, 91 K, 1.03 WHIP in 12 starts (1 CG)Career vs. Guardians: 1-1, 1.17 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0 HR, 3 BB, 18 K, 0.85 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 12 games (1 start)

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Guardians at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:43 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Red Sox -250 (bet $250 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-105) | Red Sox -1.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictionsPrediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 1

The Red Sox (-250) will cost 2½ times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward for a standalone wager. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including Boston straight up just doesn’t provide much in the way of value.

PASS, and look to the run line instead.

The RED SOX -1.5 (-115) are a much better value laying the run and a half at home. Crochet has been fantastic this season, and the All-Star has won 10 of his past 11 decisions across the previous 15 starts. He is just showing no signs of slowing down.

For the Guardians, they’re just 15-23 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, while Cecconi is winless in his past 7 starts since his last victory July 18 against the A’s at Progressive Field. He hasn’t won on the road since July 9, prior to the All-Star break.

UNDER 8 (-105) is a strong play due to the presence of Crochet. The Under is 3-1 in the southpaw’s past 4 starts at Fenway Park, and the Under is 6-2 in the past 8 games for the BoSox.

For the Guardians, the Under is 6-4-1 in the past 11 games, while holding a slight edge (4-3) in the past 7 road contests. And, in 9 road starts for Cecconi, the Under is 7-2 for the Guardians.

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