Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on MNNT

I’ll say this about the Twins selling off everything that wasn’t nailed down at the trade deadline: at least they’ve become an over bettor’s dream. All the minor leaguers that were promoted, plus September callups now in the mix, sure know how to get runs on the board as their past 15 games have gone 13-2 over tonight’s total while averaging 11.5 runs per game. Included in that stretch is 5 games against Chicago which have 4-1 over this number with 12 runs on average.

There are a lot of pitchers getting work for both of these teams who simply belong in the minors, and that equates to runs at this level. While it’s much cooler in Minneapolis tonight than would be ideal for hitting conditions, the wind is somewhat blowing out to right. And this just a low total for how both teams have been playing, as the White Sox are also averaging 11.5 runs their past 15 games with a 10-5 mark over this total. I have serious questions about both starters and no faith in either bullpen, so look for another high-scoring game here.

 

MLB (0.75 Unit) Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-1050; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on NESN

Since being promoted to a starter’s role, Cantillo has been on a short leash and Cleveland has never allowed him to finish 6 full innings. That has kept his hits allowed to very low numbers almost every game, only going over this number 3 times in his past 8 outings. But he’s yet to face a team that does the kind of damage Boston does to lefties, as the Red Sox are top-4 in every offensive metric against southpaws. They also tend to jump on the opposing starter early, just ask Cleveland’s starters the past two nights who have been knocked around, so even a short leash won’t save Cantillo from giving up plenty of hits tonight.

 

MLB (0.75 Unit) SF Giants First 5 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 7:40 PM CT on COLR

I’ve been riding Giants team totals this week, and I won’t be stopping but I will be slightly adjusting since they’ve done most of their damage early anyway. I’m also looking at price here, seeing this number juiced at a better price than the over on German Marquez’s 3.5 earned runs prop. Marquez has been brutal at home like most Rockies starters, owning a 6.36 ERA and .313 opponent on-base average. He has also lasted more than 5 innings just once in his past 5 home starts, and even in that one he surrendered 6 runs before the first 5 innings were done. Marquez is probably the most combustible starter Colorado has, and with the way San Fran is hitting right now, I think they clear this early total with ease again.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-20 (-4.67 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.