Statistically Freddy Peralta is having one of the best seasons by a Brewers pitcher in recent memory, but for those who aren’t looking at the numbers it might not feel that way.
Peralta’s six inning outing against the Blue Jays on Friday was his 16th win of the season, leading all MLB pitchers. His win-loss record doesn’t paint a complete picture of his performance and is almost certainly impacted by the quality of the Brewers team behind him, but to accumulate wins as a starting pitcher requires routinely pitching at least five innings and performing at a level that keeps his team in the game, and Peralta has checked both of those boxes in well more than half of his starts this season. He was already the first Brewer to get to 15 wins in a season since 2018 and only the fourth in the last 13 years.
Beyond the win total, however, is a season where Peralta is also near the league lead in other traditional pitching statistics. He’s one of just nine pitchers in the National League with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title who is under 3.00 in that metric. He’s also in the top 10 in strikeouts and walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP). This season he was an All Star for the second time and Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement has him as one of the NL’s six best pitchers. On a Brewers team that doesn’t have a lot of national household names, however, Peralta is still routinely overshadowed by his teammates.
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Coming into Friday night’s start against the Blue Jays Peralta had allowed just one earned run across his four previous starts, including Brewers wins against Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Those four outings, however, include two where he pitched six innings and two where he was lifted after five. In the two five inning games he still threw 108 and 96 pitches, respectively. Across the four games he struck out 26 batters in 22 innings but also walked 12.
Among pitchers who have thrown at least one inning per team game this season Peralta ranks dead last in the percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone, coming in below 44% in a season where only one other pitcher is under 46%. “Win the race to two strikes, then try to get hitters to chase” is a common strategy for pitchers but with Peralta opposing hitters seem to recognize an opportunity to get back into the count by taking pitches. Almost 25% of the batters to face Peralta see an 0-2 count but only about one in five strike out on that 0-2 pitch, and about one in six strike out on a 1-2 pitch. Almost 46% of the hitters Peralta takes to an 0-2 count see at least two more balls, in addition to the number of pitches they foul off. In a related note, Peralta has had more plate appearances go seven pitches or more than any other pitcher in the majors this season.
Peralta’s struggles to put opposing hitters away have several effects, some more obvious than others:
•Perhaps most clearly, Peralta’s long plate appearances cost him the ability to work deep into games. While Peralta has avoided complete meltdowns and pitched at least four innings in every start this season, he’s gotten an out in the seventh inning or later just twice and has had four games where he threw over 100 pitches and was lifted without completing six innings. This has impact in both the long and short term as Peralta is typically replaced by pitchers who aren’t as good as he is and these extra innings of work tax the bullpen for future games.
• There is also evidence to suggest that Peralta’s long innings have an impact on the offense behind him. In 2023 Jay Wigley of Retrosheet performed a study and found that players who spend more time in the field during games suffer a penalty at the plate. His study measured time in the field by “fielding events,” but it stands to reason that fielders who stay in the field longer due to extended at bats would see a similar effect.
• Finally, while it doesn’t necessarily manifest in wins and losses, there’s an aesthetic impact to pitching this way. Plate appearances with extended gaps between balls in play can extend the gaps between action and make games feel slow. The median Peralta start this season has only been two minutes longer than the median Brewers game overall (2:40 to 2:38), but five of the 21 games that have surpassed the three hour mark have been Peralta starts. If Peralta’s games feel more like a slog and less like an event, that makes it harder for the organization to get fans excited to watch him.
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While that final effect may seem trivial, there’s a recent comparable to show its potential impact. Blake Snell was the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, his second time as his league’s top pitcher, when he became a free agent following the 2023 season. He was also baseball’s least frequent strike-thrower that season, however, and led all MLB pitchers in walks allowed. Snell had clearly been one of the best pitchers in baseball the prior season, but the market didn’t have much interest in his services: He was still unsigned two weeks before Opening Day and eventually accepted a short term deal from the Giants. Teams don’t publicly disclose why they didn’t pursue or sign a free agent, of course, but it’s not difficult to imagine that Snell’s pitching style made it harder to count on the uptick in fan interest that usually comes with a major signing.
That comparison should be increasingly relevant to Peralta in the year ahead, as he’s likely to become a free agent for the first time following the end of the 2026 season. He’s built an extensive track record of durability and effectiveness, and in concept both he and the Brewers have a strong incentive for him to have another big year that could lead to a winning season for the team and a major payday for the player. Peralta’s rise toward contendership, superstardom and a new tax bracket, however, appears to be partially blocked by an approach and style that’s holding him back from maximizing his impact.
Kyle Lobner covers the Milwaukee Brewers in the Shepherd Express’ weekly On Deck Circle column. He has written about the Brewers and Minor League Baseball since 2008.
Sep. 02, 2025
1:39 p.m.