Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Thursday’s matchup between the Brewers and Phillies.

Thursday afternoon sees just one MLB game on the schedule before the rest of the slate begins, but the lone contest looks like a real treat for baseball fans. Baseball’s best team, the Milwaukee Brewers (86-54) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (80-59) in a showdown between two elite contenders in the National League. These squads split the first two games of this series, so Thursday should bring a tightly-contested affair.

Here’s a Brewers vs. Phillies prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for today’s action.

Brewers vs. Phillies prediction, preview

Make no mistake, the Brew Crew are here to stay and are a major threat to anyone in the MLB Postseason. Milwaukee still holds the best record in pro baseball by a multi-game margin despite a brief stumble, and after returning Jackson Chourio to the lineup, things are only looking up moving forward. They rank top-10 in hits, runs, batting average, OPS, doubles and walks over the last two weeks and now seem to be shaking off a very short cold stretch with a series win over the AL-best Blue Jays this past weekend and last night’s 6-3 victory over these Phillies.

With Freddy Peralta (2.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 168 SO) on the mound on Thursday, they have a true ace pitching as the talented right-hander takes on a frightening lineup. If anyone can handle the challenge, Peralta sure can — a 96th-percentile pitching run value as well as scores in the 80th percentile or better in xBA, average exit velocity, whiff percentage, hard-hit percentage and extension make him a real threat on the mound.

As for the Phillies, they look to bounce back and test their mettle against a top World Series challenger. They’re also a very competent lineup and took four of their last six games. Philadelphia falls top-10 in hits, runs, home runs, and stolen bases with a top-six batting average and OPS over the last 15 days, though the marks are slightly inflated due to a game in which they scored 19 runs with a staggering 20 hits last Thursday. Still, we know just how good these Phillies are, and they trot out a player whose role becomes even more crucial down the home stretch of the season following the season-ending blood clot suffered by ace Zack Wheeler last month.

Ranger Suarez (3.02 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 124 SO) gets the starting nod for Philadelphia. The left-hander allowed 10 hits in his last outing but conceded just one earned run, and he’s only given up three earned runs in his last three combined starts. He ranks in the 94th percentile in pitching run value with 83rd-percentile grades or better in xERA, average exit velocity, chase percentage, base on balls percentage, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage. He also throws a much more diverse mix than his opponent with a six-pitch arsenal.

Brewers vs. Phillies pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -126 Moneyline favorites at home in this one while the Phillies come in as +104 underdogs. The run total sits at eight for the matchup.

For what it’s worth, Philadelphia holds a losing record on the road at 35-36. Meanwhile, Milwaukee sits 46-25 at home this year, one of the best records of any franchise. This ought to be a very close contest with two star arms facing off on the mound, and either one can stymie what are usually potent batting orders. This matchup feels like one where the bullpen might make up the difference, in which case it’s easier to trust the Brewers’ unit with a 3.84 ERA (10th-best) and 1.25 WHIP (seventh-best) as opposed to the Phillies’ pen with their 4.36 ERA (23rd) and 1.32 WHIP (20th). That’s not to say Milwaukee will easily take this game — nothing feels easy against the Phillies this year with Kyle Schwarber enjoying a massive season alongside guys like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Harrison Bader, who has excelled since the team traded for him.

Still, the Brewers are the MLB’s top squad for a reason and I don’t believe Suarez slows them down enough to win this one. That’s why I’m targeting Milwaukee to escape with another win on the Moneyline.

Best bet: MIL Brewers ML (-126)

Click the odds on this bet to tail!