ARLINGTON — We know it’s September and time to panic over Arch Manning and overreact over the Cowboys – or is it the other way around? – but, hey, there is actual important baseball still being played in Arlington.
Just don’t ask the Rangers about how important their weekend showdown with the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field may be. When every series since the All-Star break has essentially been make-or-break, the thesaurus gets used up pretty quickly. Imperative? Crucial? Vital? Yes. Yes. Yes. All of them.
Put it this way: The Rangers have an opportunity to change the complexion of the AL West and wild card race over the next two weeks with six games against Houston. Manager Bruce Bochy offered a pretty direct route to explain what needs to happen.
“It’s pretty simple,” he said after the Rangers lost to Arizona on Wednesday. “This team has been playing good baseball. We need to pitch, get those timely hits and keep playing great defense.”
Rangers
This deep understanding of the game is what makes him a Hall of Famer.
We kid. We kid.
Yet, based on the Rangers season, hidden in those words is the explanation for the Rangers’ season and the key to the next three weeks. Put simply: two out of three may usually not be bad, but in the Rangers’ case, it hasn’t been and may not be good enough. On multiple levels.
On Bochy’s explainer: They lead the majors in ERA and in defensive runs saved; you know the rest of the story there.
Where the Astros, in particular, are concerned: Winning four of six over the next two weeks will only shave two games off the division lead, less than half the deficit. If they want to maximize their opportunity from head-to-head competition, the Rangers need to win at least five of six. That requires a sweep somewhere. The last time the Rangers swept the Astros anywhere? 2021. At least if we’re counting the regular season.
With that in mind, here are five critical questions for which the Rangers must have answers:
Who hits leadoff?
With a lineup thinned out by injuries, the Rangers probably need to stack their on-base guys at the top of the order with even more urgency than usual to maximize run-scoring opportunities. Problem is, leadoff has been an issue all year. With Josh Smith, the latest leadoff answer, hitting the second-half wall that has marked his still-young career, the Rangers may need to try another patch. Smith has a .298 OBP since the All-Star break.
The issue: Who is there to pick from? Wyatt Langford would be the easy answer – if he was not needed to hit second where his ability to both reach base and slug make that spot an even higher priority. Cody Freeman has been a spark plug, but he’s still only reaching base at a .256 rate since he was recalled last month. There are precious few options.
Who will stop the Bad Man?
The Rangers have won four of the first seven against Houston, but Yordan Alvarez did not play in any of those games due to a fractured hand. He’s back. And he’s Bad, as usual. In his first eight games back, Alvarez hit .435 with a 1.171 OPS.
In case his absence has made anybody forget him, Alvarez destroys Rangers pitching, whether in Houston or Arlington. He’s a .300 career hitter against the Rangers with a 1.004 OPS. Globe Life Field’s pitcher-friendly profile does nothing to really stop him. He’s got 10 homers and a 1.130 OPS in the stadium.
Who has the pitching edge?
The absence of Nathan Eovaldi, who allowed Houston one run in 12 ⅔ innings of two starts, will undoubtedly be felt. But Jacob deGrom, who starts Saturday, will likely also get a start in Houston during the Sept. 15-17 series. DeGrom has allowed Houston two runs in 14 innings this season and has allowed just a 1.20 ERA over his last three starts.
The question on deGrom is how far will the Rangers let him pitch into games. He’s not gone more than five innings in his last three starts and is at 150 for the year. It would not be surprising for Houston hitters to be extra patient against him to try and exhaust his pitch count as quickly as possible. It’s worth noting that even with his gaudy numbers over the last three starts, the Rangers have lost two of them because they’ve had to turn things over to the bullpen for longer stretches than desired.
Houston will likely have Framber Valdez pitching on Sunday, his first start since he appeared to hit his own catcher intentionally with a pitch. Valdez is 9-3 with a 2.27 ERA against the Rangers since 2020 and the Astros have won his last four starts against Texas. The nine active Rangers who have previously faced Valdez have a composite .142 average (18 for 127) against him. Houston can rig its rotation so he gets a second start against the Rangers in Houston, if needed.
Is there a secret weapon for the Rangers?
Jake Burger’s first season with the Rangers has been largely non-descript. He got off to a slow start, was sent to the minors briefly and has endured injuries. But his brief career track-record suggests he’s a strong finisher. Though he’s been limited to just 20 games since July 4, he’s slashing .356/.387/.525/.913 in that stretch, including hits in his two games back from his most recent IL stint. With Corey Seager and Astros-killer Adolis García out due to injuries, the Rangers need somebody to step into the middle of the lineup and thump. Burger has that ability.
What are the other playoff implications?
If the Rangers can win these two series, it will help them slightly in the event of a three-team tie for both the AL West and final wild card spot, if one were to happen. In a three-team tie, Seattle would most likely earn the division title by having a better composite record against the other two teams. The Mariners are 15-8 with three games to play against Houston, the only one of the three with a winning record vs. the other two. That would then create a two-way tie with the Rangers for the wild card spot. In that case, the Rangers would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Astros.
But tiebreakers are not generally a trump card for the Rangers. Of the five other wild card contenders with winning records entering Thursday, the Rangers held a head-to-head tiebreaker edge only against Boston, currently leading them by six games. It means, for all intents and purposes, the Rangers are really a half-game further back than they appear in the standings.
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