The Washington Nationals (56-83) and Chicago Cubs (80-60) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 2:20 p.m ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 2-1
The Nationals hit the road with momentum after sweeping the Miami Marlins in Washington, outscoring them 17-7 across the 3-game set. Pitching was sharp, limiting Miami to just 1 home run over the series. Washington has also leaned into player development, calling up several minor leaguers to gain big league experience as the club finishes out what has been a disappointing season.
The Cubs opened their 6-game homestand with a series win over the Atlanta Braves, but closed it on a rough note, losing 5-1 Wednesday as -137 home favorites as the Under (8) cashed. Chicago managed only 4 hits in the loss, wasting a strong outing from starter Cade Horton (5 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 6 K). Despite the setback, the Cubs remain in playoff position, currently holding the first NL Wild Card spot. They trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 5 1/2 games in the NL Central.
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Nationals at Cubs projected starters
RHP Jake Irvin vs. RHP Javier Assad
Irvin (8-10, 5.42 ERA) is making his 29th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 154 1/3 innings.
Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR in 4-1 loss against the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday2025 road stats: 6-6, 5.76 ERA (81 IP, 51 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 15 startsLast start vs. Cubs: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR in 7-1 home loss June 5Career vs. Cubs: 0-3, 8.00 ERA (18 IP, 16 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 4 starts; last in 2024
Assad (1-1, 4.05 ERA) is making his fifth start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 through 20 innings.
Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 4-3 victory at the Colorado Rockies Saturday2025 home stats: 0-0, 2.25 ERA (4 IP, 1 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 1 startCareer vs. Nationals: 1-0, 3.38 ERA (16 IP, 6 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 in 3 games (2 starts); last in 2024
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Nationals at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Nationals +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Cubs -225 (bet $225 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Cubs -1.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Nationals at Cubs picks and predictionsPrediction
Cubs 8, Nationals 2
PASS.
I like the Cubs (-225) to take the opener on Friday afternoon, but I’ll take the wager to the run line.
BET CUBS -1.5 (-115).
The Nationals wrapped up their homestand with some momentum, but things get tougher as they head to Chicago. The Cubs have dominated this matchup in 2024, outscoring Washington 15-6 in their 3 meetings and winning 2 of them by at least 5 runs.
Irvin has struggled badly against Chicago, winless in 4 career starts, and his recent form offers little encouragement. Over his last 6 outings, Irvin is 0-5 with 27 earned runs allowed in just 27 2/3 innings pitched. On the other side, Assad has been much steadier for the Cubs, going 1-0 in his last 3 starts while allowing only 5 earned runs across 16 innings.
The Nationals have been one of the worst road teams in the league at 27-41, while the Cubs have shown consistency, keeping themselves in the NL Central Division race. With Washington’s struggles and Irvin’s poor history against Chicago, the Cubs look like the clear choice to open this series with a win at Wrigley.
BET UNDER 10.5 (-115).
The way I see it, this one feels like a Cubs win, but not by enough to cover that big spread. The trends are all screaming low scoring. The Under has hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams, plus in 4 of the Nationals’ last 6 games. The Cubs have also gone Under in back-to-back outings. And with Javier Assad on the mound, it makes even more sense — his 4 starts this year have gone 3-0-1 to the Under. Feels like the smarter play here is riding the Under again.
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