The two biggest keys to a successful postseason run, most would agree, are being healthy and having a quality pitching staff in working order.
For the time being, with just over three weeks to go before the end of the season, the Red Sox have neither.
On the injury front, the oblique strain suffered by rookie outfielder Roman Anthony is a major blow. It seems unlikely that Anthony will return to play before the season ends on Sept. 28.
For that matter, he’s not guaranteed to be available for the playoffs — assuming the Red Sox participate. Anthony suffered the injury exactly four weeks out from Game 1 of the wild card round, meaning he’ll be available only if his recovery has zero setbacks and he recovers in the minimum amount of time.
In fact, Anthony’s rehab could well take him out of the Division Series, too, which begins on Oct. 4. That would constitute a four0and-a-half week recovery schedule — also an optimistic timetable.
(Taking all these dates and time tables in account, perhaps it was highly revealing that manager Alex Cora, in talking with Anthony after the diagnosis Wednesday, told the outfielder to envision taking his first at-bat in the ALCS. That best-of-seven series is set to get underway on Sunday, Oct. 12, some five and a half weeks after Anthony’s injury.
It’d be one thing to miss Anthony for the final 21 games remaining in the regular season — as the Sox are almost certain to do. But it’s not far-fetched to suggest that he could potentially miss the first two rounds of the postseason, too.
No single player is irreplaceable, but Anthony’s contributions since his promotion to the big leagues are such that he’s as close to indispensable as any position player on the roster. He contributes in every facet of the game. Moreover, Anthony has become the engine for the Red Sox’ offense from the top spot in the lineup; without him, the Red Sox have no one to generate his on-base capability or his ability to kick-start things.
In the short-term, the Red Sox are also without Wilyer Abreu, a Gold Glove-winning right fielder who, at the time of his injury, led the team in both homers and slugging percentage. The good news for the Sox is that Abreu is expected to return well before the end of the season, though it’s worth noting that he’s already missed the team’s initial projection for return. As of earlier this week, Abreu hadn’t yet been cleared to run, which means it’s hard to envision him returning to the lineup on the team’s six-game road trip which began Friday night in Phoenix.
The remainder of the injuries to the roster are mostly pitching related, and involve depth starters such as Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Kyle Harrison. None was big contributors this season — Harrison has yet to throw a pitch for the parent club after arriving in a trade in mid-June — but their continued absence creates issues for the team’s rotation.
As it stands, the Red Sox have three dependable starters in Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello along with rookie lefty Payton Tolle. But here, too, there are issues.
Tolle hasn’t made a start on regular (four days) rest all season and the Red Sox are determined to keep it that way in September. That’s why they resorted to a bullpen game Wednesday night against Cleveland that resulted in an ugly, one-sided loss.
Dustin May is the current No. 5 starter by default. If the Red Sox had better options, they’d have May’s recent exile to the bullpen be more permanent.
And while there are pockets of off-days — another one looms next Thursday after the Sox finish the series with the Athletics in Sacramento — the Red Sox are going to have to deal with stretches of the schedule in which they play six straight days, meaning they’ll again soon need either a bullpen game or a spot start from another contributor.
Few teams have four or more quality starting pitchers, especially in the final weeks of the season when the wear and tear of the first five months is evident.
But the Red Sox must find enough starting pitching to keep them in games down the stretch, and if possible, earn home field advantage in the wild card to have any hope of making a deep October run.
Should the Sox qualify for October, a four-man rotation featuring Crochet, Gioltio, Bello and Tolle could be an imposing one. The Sox would need just three starters in the wild card round, but starting with the Division Series, a fourth starter would be advisable.
Should they reach the ALCS and the World Series, both best-of-seven affairs, four will be positively essential.
Getting there, however, won’t be easy.
Pitching shortages
Increasingly, in dealing with pitching shortages across the game, contending teams are turning to young pitching prospects to help them navigate the final few weeks of the season.
The Red Sox were confident enough in Tolle to turn to him in a big start last Friday, and though they lost, it was hardly Tolle’s fault. He’ll continue to get chances.
Elsewhere, the New York Mets, with both injuries and ineffectiveness impacting their rotation, have turned to two rookies: 23-year-old right-hander Nolan McLean (4-0, 1.37) has been a revelation, and 22-year-od Jonah Tong was equally impressive last week, allowing a single run over five innings in his major league debut.
The Yankees have had similar success with Massachusetts native Cam Schlittller, 24, who has already made nine starts, compiling a 2.61 ERA to go along with a 2-2 record.
Teams have never been more willing to inject rookie position players into the mix throughout the season. This year alone, top prospects like Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell have all made their debuts in the first half of the season for the Red Sox and though not every team can match the star power of that trio, clubs have not been afraid to have their best young players contribute mid-season. Gone are the days when teams would wait for expanded rosters to give their top prospects an opportunity to play regularly.
Pitching, however, has historically been different, with teams careful not to rush young arms to the big leagues for fear that their development could be severely hampered.
This season, though, as teams continually deal with the fallout from arm injuries, sometimes they have no choice but to turn to rookies.
There’s also this: While hitters — Anthony being an exception — frequently struggle in making the jump from Triple A to the majors, that’s not always the case with pitchers. Groomed to provide high velocity with a variety of pitches, they also have the advantage of unfamiliarity.
As advanced as he is, few would have projected Tolle to pitch in the majors in 2025. Not when he made his pro debut only five months ago and was in High A as recently as May.
But just as position players can inject life into a lineup, so, too, can pitchers provide a team with a boost. No matter how detailed scouting reports are or how much video exists, facing an unknown pitcher down the stretch can be a rough proposition for opponents.
“The whole season is a war of attrition when it comes to (starting) pitching,” offered one MLB executive. “No matter how much you stockpile, it seems you’re always in danger of running out of healthy options. And it gets to the point where teams just figure, ‘Well, let’s see how the kid does,’ and take a chance on some of these prospects.”
Not every team is plugging its best young arms directly into the rotation. The Pittsburgh Pirates, with little to play for, are easing a couple of top prospects — Bubba Chandler and Carmen Mlodzinski — into the equation as bulk relievers.
It’s a way to introduce them to the pitching at the big league level while also capping their innings total for the year. With the playoffs long ago out of reach, the Pirates don’t have the same urgency as contending teams. They’re content just to get the experience for their best young arms and allow them to compete for more full-time roles next spring.
There’s a temptation, for instance, to turn Chandler, the game’s top pitching prospect, loose and team him with Paul Skenes in the rotation. But so far, the Pirates are resisting and limiting him to relief usage.
“Trying to keep him in the same mindset we are trying to all the young pitchers in,” said Pirates GM Ben Cherington, a native of Meriden, N.H. “When it’s their turn to pitch, get outs, get as many outs as you can until (the manager) comes and takes the ball away from you. Help the team win and we’ll plan for the next one.”
The Red Sox, Mets and Yankees, each locked into tight playoff battles, don’t have the same luxury as Pittsburgh, which can slow-play the debuts. Although each of the three teams are over the CBT threshold in payroll, they’ve discovered that, despite their profligate spending, their rotation depth is thin. Now, to varying degrees, each club is being rescued by cheap labor, with the rookies all earning pro-rated minimum salaries.
Reports this week that Alex Bregman will opt out this offseason should come as no surprise to anyone.
From the time he raced out to a great start in the first two months of the season — prior to his calf strain — and re-established his value, it was fairly obvious that Bregman would take another crack at free agency this winter.
The prospect of earning $40 million next year (and the year after that) from the Red Sox might have been alluring, but at 31, Bregman is in search of long-term security.
He’s enjoyed Boston, both as a city and baseball environment, loves playing for Cora and thinks the world of the Red Sox’ young players like Anthony, Campbell and Mayer. He also enjoys taking over the leadership mantle in the Boston clubhouse.
But it’s well known that Bregman was frustrated that he couldn’t get more five- and six-year offers last winter, and this is the time to strike: after a successful — albeit injury-marred season — on a high profile team.
He’s absolutely open to returning to the Red Sox and might even prefer it to other options, so long as the money is right.
Negotiations could get interesting. The Red Sox value his defense, his right-handed production and the intangibles he brings. But will they commit to, say, five years and $165 million to a player who will play at 37 in the final year of such a deal? Those are precisely the kind of contractual commitments that principal owner John Henry has consistently avoided and, indeed, warned against.
Internally, if Bregman goes elsewhere, the Red Sox could turn to Mayer at third for the next two seasons. But Mayer’s recent injury history and the lost development time brought about by his season-ending wrist injury could give them pause, too.