Freddy Peralta has had a special season, but his last month has been borderline unprecedented. Yesterday’s game was Peralta’s fifth consecutive scoreless start of at least five innings. He is now one of 10 pitchers since 1900 to achieve that feat, joining Orel Hershiser (who currently holds the record for the the longest scoreless innings streak), Bob Gibson, and Zack Greinke. Nobody has matched his streak this year; the last pitcher to do it was Zac Gallen in 2022.
Peralta’s season stats were impressive before the calendar turned to August. Now? They’re among the best in all of baseball.
ERA: 2.50 (2nd best in the National League, 4th best in baseball among qualified starters)
Wins: 16 (1st in baseball)
Strikeouts: 176 (7th best in the National League)
Batting Average Against: .190 (2nd best in the National League)
If he manages to maintain these stats, Peralta might have a serious case for the NL Cy Young Award.
He’s probably not winning. It’s not that Peralta’s numbers aren’t some of the most impressive in the league; it’s that Paul Skenes exists.
Pittsburgh’s ace has been phenomenal since his debut at the beginning of last season. He leads the National League in ERA (1.98), FIP (2.42), and bWAR among pitchers (6.9) while ranking top 10 in innings (173). Barring an unforeseen and dramatic collapse (see: Garrett Crochet on Wednesday), Skenes will run away with the award.
Even if Skenes wasn’t in the picture, Peralta might not be the front-runner. His fWAR (3.4) isn’t even in the top 15 among starting pitchers. His bWAR is better (5.0), but still only seventh-best. Peralta’s 3.61 FIP (fielding-independent pitching) would put him 20th in the league. His xFIP (expected FIP) is 3.98, which is barely in the top 30 league-wide. The top seven starting pitchers by WHIP all allow less than one hit or walk per innings pitched — Peralta’s is 1.07, tied for 12th in baseball.
In a league where more and more emphasis is placed on analytics and advanced stats, those numbers aren’t good enough to beat out a guy like Cris Sanchez, or even Logan Webb. Peralta’s peripherals do, admittedly, make sense to me. Even in his best starts, he will often have an inning or two where things get kind of sketchy. He’ll walk the leadoff hitter, give up a couple hits, or labor through 10-pitch at-bats.
Despite that, Peralta has still proven that he’s about as effective at limiting runs as any other pitcher in the league. It doesn’t matter how many runners he puts on base, or how many consecutive balls he throws, or what his expected FIP says should happen — he almost always finds a way to get out of the inning without getting lit up. Maybe it shouldn’t matter to Cy Young voters that Peralta gives up more baserunners than a guy like Cristopher Sánchez because he allows less runs than Sánchez.
I also know it probably will. Take 1996 NL Cy Young winner John Smoltz as an example of how an actual voter thinks about the award. Smoltz has said on record that he considers five stats while making his pick: innings pitched, strikeouts, batting average against, WHIP, and ERA. Peralta isn’t going to beat Skenes in any of those categories except batting average against, and he’s not even top five in baseball in innings pitched, strikeouts, or WHIP. Peralta’s ERA is elite, second-best in the NL, but the only guy ahead of him is Skenes. Those stats say Skenes is pretty clearly the Cy Young.
If one were to make a case for Peralta, where would one start? Other than ranking second in the NL in ERA, Peralta also leads all of baseball in wins. Wins are still generally considered one of, if not the most important statistic by Cy Young voters, which definitely helps Peralta out.
Still, as some would no doubt respond: wins aren’t a pitcher stat! Leading the league in wins is partially a function of playing for what has been the best team in baseball this year. It’s disingenuous to argue that Peralta deserves a Cy Young over a guy on the Pirates because of the vast difference in wins, especially considering that Skenes has him beat in most statistical categories. Peralta’s win total does, however, demonstrate his ability to put the Brewers in position to win pretty much every game that he pitches. He’s not picking up 16 wins with a 4.00 ERA; he’s shutting teams down and winning because of it.
If the ultimate goal of a pitcher is to limit runs and win games, Peralta has been as good as anyone not named Skenes, peripherals aside. Results matter. Skenes has had an incredible season and would obviously deserve the award, as would have the injured Zack Wheeler. However, if the Cy Young is supposed to honor a holistically-defined “best” or “most outstanding” pitcher, wouldn’t Peralta — the best pitcher on the best team in baseball, second best ERA in the NL, with the most wins — have a legitimate case? If Skenes’ ERA slips a little, and Peralta keeps pitching like he has, the race could get interesting.
So, does Freddy Peralta have a shot at the Cy Young? If Skenes keeps his ERA somewhere around 2, probably not, although you never know what might happen down the stretch. Cy Young or not, the fact that Peralta is in the conversation shows just how important he’s been to the Brewers. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball and a main reason why Milwaukee is sitting in the spot in baseball. If Peralta keeps pitching like he has over the last month, he’s as “outstanding” a pitcher as any.