Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were brought on board to head the Twins front office in late 2016.  We have nearly a decade of drafts to look at now.  What might have happened under other leadership? 

I took a look at the first rounders picked by the Twins 2017-25 and then checked which player was taken next.  That’s hardly an infallible way to look at it, but resembles a kind of “crowd sourcing” among the dozen or so other GMs in the majors during the same era as to how it might have gone had they been drafting in the Twins place.  And it attempts to avoid cherry-picking of one hypothetical outcome or another way, way down the draft list, where multiple other teams whiffed too. 

I’ve opted to omit the 2024-25 drafts since it’s way too soon to evaluate them, but for the rest I show the bWAR career totals side by side:

2023    Walker Jenkins  0.0     As      Jacob Wilson    2.2
2023    Charlee Soto    0.0     Marlins Thomas White    0.0
2022    Brooks Lee      -0.8    Royals  Gavin Cross     0.0
2021    Chase Petty     -0.8    Padres  Jackson Merrill 6.1
2021    Noah Miller     0.0     Pirates Anthony Solometo        0.0
2020    Aaron Sabato    0.0     Yanks   Austin Wells    2.6
2019    Keoni Cavaco    0.0     Phils   Bryson Stott    9.4
2019    Matt Wallner    4.9     Rays    Seth Johnson    -0.4
2018    Trevor Larnach  3.6     Brewers Brice Turang    11.5
2017    Royce Lewis     4.0     Red     Hunter Greene   12.4
2017    Brent Rooker    8.9     Marlins Brian Miller    -0.1

Each one is worth discussing, which I’ll do from the bottom up.  Rooker of course is a very interesting case, and he has turned himself into a quality major league hitter after two other organizations after the Twins gave up on him too.  He was a throw-in on the trade that brought us Paddack and Pagan, so even though we didn’t reap his full potential by a long shot, at least we cashed him in for something and the next team who was drafting wound up with nothing to speak of.  Advantage: FalVine.

Royce Lewis is maybe even more interesting.  We coulda had Greene, and instead got a player whose potential seems to have been decimated by injury.  Advantage: not Falvine.

Larnach?  He’s been okay.  The next guy in line has been a whole lot better so far. Advantage: not FalVine. 

Wallner.  He’s been somewhat better than Larnach. The Rays didn’t do nearly as well  Advantage: FalVine.

Cavaco. Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer.  Advantage: not FalVine.

Sabato.  Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer – could we use an additional catcher right now?  Advantage: not FalVine.

Miller.  He’s knocking on the major league door with the Dodgers; we traded him for the unique athletic stylings of Manuel Margot. The next guy drafted hasn’t panned out yet, although he still might.  I’ll try not to hold Margot against Miller personally – whether foolishly or not, the Twins cashed Miller in for something.  Advantage (ever so slightly): FalVine.

Petty.  Another interesting case.  We cashed him in for two years of Sonny Gray.  But, but, but, the Padres have Merrill and will continue to have him for many years, per contract.  I don’t think the Padres would make that same trade.  Advantage: not FalVine.

Lee.  The current WAR is ugly, but it’s reasonable to think he’ll continue to have a major league career – by my recollection, it was considered an 8-player draft and the Twins were choosing #8, but give them credit for not overthinking it.  The next guy drafted looks like he’s not gonna make it.  Advantage: FalVine.

Soto.  This is a comparison of two high-school pitchers, so it’s way premature.  The other guy has displayed more health/endurance so far, and with good ERAs – he’s reached AA at age 20 and not yet missed a beat.  Advantage: I’m gonna call this a ‘push’ for the time being but the tea leaves are currently pointing in the wrong direction.

Jenkins.  The big kahuna, and the reason I drew the line at the 2023 draft when it’s obviously premature.  It’s interesting because the next guy drafted has reached the majors and is doing very well.  Do the Twins now regret choosing Jenkins?  I would doubt it – his ceiling is sky high.  Would the As have chosen differently than the Twins did, back in 2023?  I also doubt it – this was considered a 5-player draft and the Twins were choosing #5.  With all things considered, I’m going to maybe be controversial and not call it too soon to tell.  Advantage: a push – the Twins simply did what was expected and (arguably) did what any FO would have done.

So, count them up.  Of the 11 picks, I give FalVine the edge on 4, I call it a push on 2, and it’s a worse outcome on 5.

But I think that a simple count understates it.  Which would you rather have right now?

Merrill, Wells, Stott, Turang, Greene?

Lee, Gray (suppose we would have extended him), Wallner, Larnach, Lewis?

Oof.  Going by WAR for 2025 all by itself (it’s anyone’s guess going forward), I’d have to say: Not An Impressive Body Of Work.

I want a 11 Do-Overs.  😀