It’s probably time to shut down Spencer Strider.

Strider hasn’t really pitched all that poorly this season, but the 4.97 ERA will wear on you mentally, if nothing else. His strikeout rate is about 9.5 per nine innings, and the walk rate sits at about 3.5 per nine. The walk rate is a little up from his career norms, though not much, but the strikeouts haven’t been there, of course. It all settles out to 4.12 xFIP.

The real culprit has been the long ball. His career HR/FB rate sits around 12%, which is higher than league average, but when you throw as hard as he does, it’s not all that surprising. You throw hard, and you pitch up in the zone. Batters are bound to pop a few out of the stadium, but his HR/FB rate is 16.5% this season.

It’s not completely innocent, of course. Strider’s velocity is down 1.5 mph from pre-surgery, and it’s down 2.5 from his peak. And his pitches are moving less, which explains both the diminished strikeout rate and the increased home run rate.

I will say that his velocity and break have held fairly steady throughout the season, so my thought on shutting him down is more about letting him have an extended offseason to try to get some of that back. Coming back from major injuries mid-season can be tough – you don’t get a rest period while you’re rehabbing – and Strider doesn’t really need to build innings – he’s thrown almost 190 innings in a previous season. I know the rotation is banged up, but at this point, I’m not sure how much that really matters.

On the other side, Luis Castillo takes the hill. Castillo is also no longer the ace he used to be, but his downslide is more due to age than anything else. Now 32 years old, the strikeout rate is down to about 8 per 9, the groundball rate is down to about 40% (peak was well north of 50%), and the HR/FB rate is still high against the league-average. His xFIP is similar to Strider’s at 4.21, but his ERA of 3.94 is much more palatable.

Castillo’s pitch mix is pretty standard.

He still throws hard, but it’s 2 mph below his peak. The sinker still gets thrown, but it doesn’t really seem to be all that effective anymore. And the other two pitches don’t play as well when you go from 97 to 95. Castillo is still an effective pitcher, but he’s no longer the guy you might remember from the Cincinnati Reds. It’s not too late for a revival, but it’s certainly not happening right now.

Game Date/Time: Sunday, September 7th, 12:05 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan