The Mountain West has almost exclusively been a one-bid league in softball and baseball over the last decade.

During the last 10 years, the conference has put multiple teams in the NCAA softball or baseball tournament just once — in softball in 2019 when two teams made regionals.

Nevada has learned the hard way that the league gets almost no respect from the selection committee with Wolf Pack baseball being snubbed from the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and softball falling short of an at-large berth in 2024 and 2025 despite all three of those teams winning at least 40 games.

MW baseball hasn’t been the same since TCU left the league in 2012 and Fresno State’s decline in softball has played a factor in that sport turning into a one-bid situation. But the MW’s membership is about to shift. After one more season with its current schools, the MW is losing San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State and Fresno State to the Pac-12 while adding Hawaii, UC Davis, UTEP and Grand Canyon (plus Northern Illinois in football).

How will this impact MW baseball and softball? Let’s take a look.

New MW softball

The MW will lose a key softball program in San Diego State, which has made 15 NCAA Regionals since its debut in the tournament in 2001. The Aztecs have won 12 MW titles during that period, including the last three conference tournaments. SDSU had a MW-best RPI of 29 this season. That’s a huge loss. This has been the league’s top softball program.

Fresno State also has had an elite softball program with 16 NCAA Tournament berths since 2000 and 34 in its history. It has reached the Women’s World Series 12 times with five runner-up finishes and the 1998 national title. While its success in the MW hasn’t been as sterling with four titles since joining the league 2012, this program still has an elite mid-major ceiling and was a solid 64th in the RPI this season.

Boise State has had a good program, although it’s won just one title in its 14 years in the league (in 2018). It had an RPI this season of 81 and is generally in the top 100. Utah State and Colorado State have more mediocre programs that won’t be missed much from an RPI-building standpoint, although the Rams did win the 2019 MW regular-season title and the Aggies were 109th in RPI this season.

As for the MW’s additions, Grand Canyon is a regular Top 25 team and just paid its head coach, Shanon Hays, top-20 Division I money. The former head coach at Texas Tech, Hays has won 79 percent of his games in three seasons at Grand Canyon with a better than 80 percent mark in conference. The Antelopes won 50 games last year, 46 this year and are headed to their fourth straight NCAA Regional with seven conference titles in its four years under Hays. Grand Canyon is 32nd in the RPI.

Hawaii, UC Davis and UTEP ranked 111th, 172nd and 220th in the RPI, respectively, this season. Hawaii had a nice run from 2000-10 but hasn’t won a conference title or made an NCAA Regional since 2013. UC Davis has won one softball title (2010) since moving to D-I in 2005. And UTEP hasn’t made an NCAA Tournament since the program started in 2004.

Grand Canyon for San Diego State is essentially a one-for-one trade, but losing Fresno State and Boise State on top of that is difficult. Hawaii has a solid softball program, but it’s not on the level of Fresno State or Boise State, and UC Davis and UTEP are not strong softball adds. The MW should be more winnable for Nevada in softball, although Grand Canyon is the favorite starting in the 2026-27 season.

Of the top-five RPI teams in MW softball this year, four are leaving the league. The MW will not be as strong in softball in the post-2026 membership change as a result. It will be top heavy and should remain a one-bid league unless both Grand Canyon and Nevada have elite seasons. But the Wolf Pack’s strength of schedule in conference will fall, which means it must improve its non-league scheduling for legitimate at-large consideration.

MW softball in 2027 with 2025 RPI listed: Grand Canyon (32); Nevada (41); Hawaii (111); UNLV (129); San Jose State (158); UC Davis (172); New Mexico (180); UTEP (220) — Average of 130; this year’s membership average is 111

New MW baseball

The MW will only lose two baseball programs in San Diego State and Fresno State as Colorado State, Boise State and Utah State don’t sponsor the sport. That leaves the Pac-12 with just five baseball programs starting in 2026-27, one below the NCAA minimum. And Oregon State might want to stay independent rather than play in that watered-down league (the Beavers have a top-10 RPI this season as an independent). So, the Pac-12 is in some trouble from a baseball perspective.

As for the MW, it adds three baseball programs in Grand Canyon, UC Davis and Hawaii (UTEP does not sponsor the sport). The MW has not been good in baseball of late. This season, it has zero top-120 RPI teams and ranks 15th out of 30 conferences in RPI. It was 18th in 2024, 19th in 2023, 14th in 2022 and eighth in 2021. That’s a negative trend line.

Grand Canyon has won seven WAC regular-season titles and one conference tournament since 2015, making NCAA Regionals in 2021, 2022 and 2024. It is second in the WAC this year with an RPI of 79. This is a solid baseball addition. Hawaii hasn’t won a conference title since 2011 in the WAC with its last NCAA Tournament berth in 2010. Its led by former San Diego head coach Rich Hill, who won 747 games and reached eight NCAA Tournaments with the Toreros. The Rainbow Warriors are 63rd in RPI and should be a good addition in baseball. UC Davis has one NCAA Tournament berth in its history (2008). The Aggies rank 137th in RPI, which would rank second in the MW this season.

On paper, you’d think losing Fresno State (won a national title in 2008 and has 14 conference titles since 2006) and San Diego State (won six conference titles and reached six NCAA Tournaments since 2009) would be a downgrade. But neither of those programs have performed very well over the last half-decade, which is a reason behind the league’s overall decline in the sport. Replacing them with Grand Canyon and Hawaii is not much of a downgrade and might actually be an improvement. While this isn’t enough to push the MW into multi-bid territory, it’s not as big a hit as the conference’s softball outfit will see. Of course, softball was starting at a higher point after ranking sixth in RPI this season.

What the MW really needs is for Nevada, New Mexico and UNLV to be regular top-100 RPI teams — which hasn’t happened much of late — to complement Grand Canyon and Hawaii. There’s a chance this sport gets better after the membership changes and works toward becoming a multiple-bid league, but a lot must happen for that to occur.

MW softball in 2027 with 2025 RPI listed: Hawaii (63); Grand Canyon (79); New Mexico (124); UC Davis (137); UNLV (140); Nevada (161); San Jose State (198); Air Force (208) — Average of 139; this year’s membership average is 179

Our chief takeaways here include softball’s depth being significantly hurt but adding a Top 25 program; baseball potentially getting better despite losing two “name” programs; and Grand Canyon likely being the favorite to win the softball and baseball titles immediately upon MW arrival.

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.