The New York Mets (76-67) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (83-60) Monday for the opener of a 4-game NL East series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:45 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 7-2

The Mets lost 3-2 to the Cincinnati Reds Sunday, closing that 3-game series with 2 losses. They are just 3-7 over their last 10 games and have struggled offensively, scoring 3 runs or fewer in 3 of their last 4 contests. While New York sits 7 games behind the Phillies, they are 4 games ahead of the Reds and San Francisco Giants for the last NL Wild Card spot.

The Phillies lost to the Miami Marlins on the road 5-4 Sunday to snap their 3-game winning streak. Philadelphia has been surging, winning 7 of its last 10 games. It is 5 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in baseball.

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Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Manara (1-2, 5.60 ERA) makes his 10th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 through 45 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 10-8 road win vs. Detroit Tigers Monday2025 road stats: 0-2, 6.53 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 25 H, 4 BB, 30 K in 5 games (4 starts)Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 2-2, 4.99 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 7 games (5 starts)

Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 69 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-3 road loss vs. Milwaukee Wednesday2025 home stats: 3-3, 6.55 ERA (33 IP, 24 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 41 H, 11 BB, 30 K in 6 startsCareer vs. Mets (regular season): 10-10, 3.54 ERA (170 1/3 IP, 67 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 29 startsMets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:45 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictionsPrediction

Phillies 5, Mets 3

BET PHILLIES (-105).

The Mets, with Manaea as a starter, have disappointed over the last few weeks. They have gone 2-5 over Manaea’s last 7 starts and have allowed at least 7 runs in 5 of those games. New York has also been terrible on the road, going 31-40.

The Phillies have been in a much better flow and have won 3 of Nola’s 4 starts since he returned to the rotation. They have scored at least 4 runs in 3 straight games, so they should be able to score enough to open the series with a win as well.

Back PHILLIES (-105).

PASS.

There’s no great option on the spread. The Mets (+145) as a favorite are too risky for the above-mentioned reasons, and the Phillies (-180) are too risky as an underdog.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

Both sides have trended toward the Under as of late. The Mets have gone 0-3-1 O/U in their last 4 games, tallying just 12 runs in those performances. The Phillies have an explosive offense, but have gone just 2-5-2 O/U in their last 9 contests. They are 60-73-10 O/U on the year. Back UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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