Texas snaps ice-cold home streak vs. HOU

ARLINGTON — Do you want to take a guess at which Texas Rangers pitcher won the last game that clinched a home series win vs. the Houston Astros before Sunday’s win?

It was Kolby Allard, of course, after he pitched an inning-plus of relief in an 8-5 win vs. the Astros on May 22, 2021. The Rangers will now hope that Phil Maton, who won Sunday’s game to secure the team’s first home series win vs. the Astros in more than four years, does not evolve into the same level of trivia some half-decade down the road.

Much has changed since Allard’s win. In the last week of Rangers baseball, though, much remained the same. The scrappy and undermanned Rangers are still within distance of a playoff berth against conventional odds.

Here are five things we learned in the week that was.

Rangers

The weekly playoffs odds update

You know what? Let’s just make this a weekly tradition. We’ll gather here, every Monday, and take stock of where the team’s playoff odds stand according to a formula that we’ll blindly trust.

Sound good? Great.

The Rangers, according to FanGraphs, have a 15.1% chance to qualify for the playoffs after a week in which they went .500 against the Diamondbacks and Astros. That’s a 3% drop from last week’s 18.1% chance they had after a three-game sweep of the Athletics.

Consider it a reminder of how thin the margins are. A good week — even one that includes a nice series win vs. a rival — is not good enough. To reach the playoffs, and to beat these odds, the Rangers need to be great.

Texas Rangers first base Jake Burger (center) receives a high five from manager Bruce Bochy... OK, but where do they actually stand?

The Rangers, as of Monday morning, are one-and-a-half games back of the Seattle Mariners for the American League’s third Wild Card berth and four games back of the Astros in the division.

It does not seem insurmountable, no, but there are two things that must be considered.

The Mariners, who handily won the season series against the Rangers this year, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means that the Rangers must surpass the Mariners, not just finish with a record as good as theirs, to qualify for the playoffs. The Rangers have a bear of a schedule left to play. Their next nine games will be against three playoff-positioned teams in the Milwaukee Brewers, the New York Mets and the Astros again. And, to the point made in the thought above, good (meaning, say, a 5-4 record in those games) may not cut it. The Kansas City Royals are only a half-game behind the Rangers in the Wild Card standings. The only decent news here is that they, too, have an arduous slate of opponents left with two first-place teams (the Philadelphia Phillies and the Toronto Blue Jays) and the Mariners left to play. Do the Rangers have a down-ballot award candidate?

Hey, uh, should Jack Leiter be discussed in the American League Rookie of the Year race?

OK, as it pertains to a first-place finish, no. He can’t match what Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has done since he debuted or, for that matter, his shortstop teammate Jacob Wilson. Ditto for Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony.

There’s a case to be made, though, that Leiter has been possibly the league’s best rookie pitcher. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 3.74 ERA in 127 2/3 innings this year. That’s the lowest mark of any rookie pitcher who’s thrown 120 or more innings. His 2.0 WAR, per FanGraphs, is the second-best among all rookie pitchers and only a shade behind New York Yankees right-hander Will Warren (2.1 WAR). It ranks sixth among all AL rookies regardless of position.

It’s a credit to, among other things, Leiter’s exceptional second half. He has a 2.66 ERA in 47 1/3 innings since the All-Star break, thanks to the enhanced use of his secondary pitches and a better feel in advantage counts. He might not qualify for the year-end-award podium, but, with an expected four starts left to make this season, he could force some voters to consider it.

Texas Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter throws to the Athletics during the second inning of a... Speaking of valuable rookies

The Baseball Reference statistic Win Probability Added, or WPA, measures a player’s individual impact on the outcome of a singular game. It takes everything — specifically the timeliness of their plays — into account to produce a percentage value.

By that metric, if you choose to subscribe to its importance, two of the team’s most impactful individual performances were had this past week.

Infielder Cody Freeman and outfielder Alejandro Osuna, two faces of this energetic and makeshift Rangers team that’s defied odds in the last dozen or so games, recorded two of the eight-best single-game WPA marks of any Texas position player this season.

Both were set in last Monday’s improbable 7-5 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Freeman, whose .467 WPA is the fourth-highest that any Rangers hitter has notched this season, went 2 for 3 with a home run and a game-tying single in the ninth inning. Osuna, whose .434 WPA is the eighth-highest, hit a two-run single in the 10th inning to plate the go-ahead run and another to boot.

You don’t need to be a veteran — or a statistics whiz — to recognize that kind of impact.

Texas Rangers Cody Freeman (left) reacts after scoring on a Josh Jung double in the sixth... A standout sophomore season in perspective

Our Evan Grant noted Saturday that the future of the Rangers is in good hands with outfielder Wyatt Langford. The historical precedence that he’s set in his second major league season as a 23-year-old validates that too.

Langford, who’s totaled 5.2 WAR this season according to Baseball Reference, is only the fourth player in Rangers history to accumulate 5+ WAR in a single season as a 23-year-old or younger. The others? Juan Gonzalez (6.5 WAR in 1993), Hank Blalock (6.4 WAR in 2003) and Ruben Sierra (5.9 WAR in 1989).

But, wait, there’s more. Only 65 players aged 23 or younger leaguewide have totaled 5+ WAR in a single season this century. Here’s a list of other players who meet that criteria.

Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. totaled 5.2 WAR in his second season as a big leaguer in 2019 as a 21-year-old. Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager totaled 5.2 WAR in his second season as a big leaguer in 2017 as a 23-year-old. Cleveland Guardians shortstop Francisco Lindor totaled 5.2 WAR in his second season as a big leaguer in 2016 as a 22-year-old. Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera totaled 5.2 WAR in his third season as a big leaguer in 2005 as a 22-year-old.

And here’s a list of players that Langford could theoretically surpass in the season’s final three weeks.

Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman totaled 5.3 WAR in his second season as a big leaguer in 2013 as a 23-year-old.Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton totaled 5.4 WAR in his third season as a big leaguer in 2012 as a 22-year-old. Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez totaled 5.5 WAR in his second season as a big leaguer in 2023 as a 22-year-old. San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto totaled 5.5 WAR in his fourth season as a big leaguer in 2022 as a 23-year-old.

Now, to be clear, one singular statistic does not project future success and is at times an imperfect method to compare across different positions. It can, however, certify that Langford has taken a leap into territory most often reserved for star-caliber players.

Twitter: @McFarland_Shawn

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