Despite an often frustrating season that has seen steps backwards in nearly every facet of the game, the Kansas City Royals are nevertheless on pace for a second consecutive winning campaign. More importantly, they are also still in reasonable pursuit of a Wild Card slot and another crack at the playoffs thanks to a Seattle Mariners meltdown and broad mediocrity elsewhere in the American League.
With expanded September rosters, the Royals chose to be aggressive. They recalled top prospect and gigantic human Jac Caglione, but they also decided to call up Carter Jensen, their best player in the Minor Leagues who had not yet made his MLB debut. Neither decision was a slam dunk, as the team could have given Drew Waters or Dairon Blanco another go and/or selected right-handed catcher Luca Tresh, who himself has had a nice year in Omaha.
Well, the first week of September is at its close. The Royals have played six games. And Jensen and Caglianone have started in five of them. That’s not “both of them have started in five out of six games.” That’s “they have combined for five starts, total.” Cags started on the 3rd, the 5th, and the 6th. Jensen started on the 4th and the 6th.
Anytime a top prospect is called up or called up again after completing a rehab assignment, fans want to see that player play. Naturally, that has happened here. There has been some consternation on social media platforms and in our comment section about not getting to see these two prospects play.
It is obvious why the Royals aren’t playing Cags and Jensen as much as they would otherwise. Position is part of it; Mike Yastrzemski and Vinnie Pasquantino are the starting right fielder and first baseman, respectively, and Salvador Perez is the starting catcher. Those are the positions Cags and Jensen play.
Additionally, the Royals have a razor thin margin for error and are in the midst of a playoff race. Surely they don’t want to put extra pressure on those youngsters. Furthermore, there’s no guarantee they will succeed. Jensen struck out in his first plate appearance–which he did a lot in the minors–and we all know how poorly Cags’ stat line look from his MLB play.
In a vacuum, this makes sense. There’s only one problem: the Royals’ other bench players who are getting playing time over Cags and Jensen are not world-beating talent. I’m not going to go super in detail here, but come on:
Tyler Tolbert, 27, career .275 OBP in limited time this yearLuke Maile, 34, career .276 OBP; spent most of the year in OmahaMichael Massey, 27, career .278 OBP; this year .236 OBPNick Loftin, 26, career .296 OBP; this year .285 OBPRandal Grichuk, 34, career .299 OBP; this year .284 OBP Adam Frazier, 33, .303 OBP over last four years
This is not to say that these players aren’t worth roster spots or don’t serve specific roles: Tolbert is the pinch runner, Maile the backup catcher, Grichuk the left-hand hitting specialist, and Loftin and Frazier being the right-hand hitting and left-hand hitting utilitymen, respectively.
But you know what none of those players are? None of those guys are starting-calibur players at this point in their careers. Not one. Those five have, in 197 games, combined for 0.6 Wins Above Replacement per Fangraphs.*
And I’m not even including Massey and his -1.0 fWAR here. I don’t understand Massey’s spot on the team, considering who else is on the team and the performance of everyone involved. If the ideal roles for Massey and Frazier constituted a Venn diagram, it would be a circle.
Ultimately, it all comes down to risk calculation. Kansas City is within striking distance of a playoff spot with no room for error. The aforementioned six players offer limited upside but also a higher floor than a pair of 22-year-old rookies. Caglianone and Jensen, meanwhile, are huge error bars. They could be great! They could also stink. The Royals are limiting that pair to a focused bench role to mitigate the potential for poor play while taking some advantage of their raw skill and projectability.
I don’t think that’s the right move. Caglianone and Jensen need to be in the starting lineup every day (or near enough every day) for the rest of the season.
Look: the Royals have been playing pretty well in the second half of the year. But this is a team that is limping towards the finish line. Their top three starting pitchers–Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic–all on the injured list. This has put immense strain on the bullpen, which is also missing Hunter Harvey and Steven Cruz. Bobby Witt Jr. has missed the last two and a half games with back spasms.
Furthermore, though we are all pleased that the Royals are in pursuit of a playoff spot, that is all they have been doing: pursuing, lagging, hoping, looking up at teams above them. They haven’t had a postseason probability above 50% since May 13, and it hasn’t been above 25% since June 20. After yesterday’s contests, Kansas City is two games back of the Mariners. The Guardians are a half game behind the Royals in the standings, and the Rangers are half a game above them in the standings. There are only 19 games left.
This might be a different discussion if the Royals, for instance, already had a playoff spot and were trying to hold onto it. But we are not there. It is not the time to play it safe. This is a time to take risks. Friend of Royals Review Jeff Zimmerman posted on Bluesky the basic thesis of this article: “No team’s playoff hopes should be linked to how well Adam Frazier plays.”
It is entirely possible that Caglianone and Jensen struggle over the next three weeks. But the Royals are only on pace for 83 wins, which isn’t gonna get it done. Who cares if the Royals only win 80 games instead of 83 games because they struggle? The Royals need to win 86 games instead of 83 games. That’s only going to happen if the wildly talented top prospects get more of a shot.