It’s a tale of two disappointing teams who have played their way back into a situation where they might redeem themselves here in the final month of the season. The Diamondbacks had such high hopes to start 2025, with ZiPS projecting a second-place finish and the franchise itself high on itself for adding star pitcher Corbin Burnes to the mix. Burnes is out for the season and possibly all of next season following Tommy John surgery and at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks were sellers after falling to 51-58.
The Giants were generally considered and projected to be an also-ran, but a pretty solid one, possibly even above .500! But then they went 21-40 over a 9 1/2-week stretch and it seemed like they were destined for another forgettable season, sellers at the trade deadline themselves. But since the trade deadline, the Giants are playing back towards their slightly above average projections (18-16) — and the Diamondbacks have, too, despite losing key players to trade and injury. Their 21-14 mark is third-best in MLB.
What looked like a potential gimme series now looks like it will be quite a challenge, as the young players on Arizona’s roster look poised to finish this season on a high note. Both teams are still very long shots to make the postseason (SF at 3%, AZ at 2%), but the two teams play each other six times this month and are, presumably, fighting it out for third place in the NL West. If you fast forward away from the trade deadline to just the last few weeks (so, since August 18th), both teams are 12-7.
The Diamondbacks are still led by Ketel Marte (.905 OPS), Corbin Carroll (.895), and Geraldo Perdomo (.829), but their 21-14 stretch has also been aided by Blaze Alexander (.840 over his last 35 games), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.223 ISO on a .783 OPS) — who is out for the season following a torn knee ligament. Marte, it must be noted, loves Oracle Park, with a career .922 OPS in 221 PA. Catcher Gabriel Moreno has also been on fire of late, slashing .304/.353/.500 over his last 14 games (51 PA). Carroll and his miniature version, Alek Thomas, are key matchups in game one of this series. Carroll is 7-for-18 in his career against Logan Webb and Thomas is 5-for-19. Arizona is 9-8 in their road games since the trade deadline and on their last road trip of 7 games, went 4-3, splitting a 4-game series in Milwaukee and taking 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers.
The Giants, as you know, are licking their wounds after dropping a series in St. Louis that they should’ve won, either through competent relief work or better situational hitting. It’s hard to explain what’s going on here: the Giants are simply hitting the daylights out of the baseball. Using that “since August 18th” split that I mentioned above, there are 7 Giants hitting 20+% better than league average. Rafael Devers and Matt Chapman are at the top, with 195 wRC+ and 194 wRC+, respectively; then, Luis Matos (188), Willy Adames (174), Drew Gilbert (168), Jung Hoo Lee (127) and Dominic Smith (122). The only hitters who’ve hit worse than league average for the past few weeks? Casey Schmitt (81 wRC+), Patrick Bailey (54), and Christian Koss (-19).
The Giants currently trail the season series 3-4 and haven’t won one against Arizona since that unbelievable 17-2 mark in 2021. Even still, Arizona hasn’t lost a series at Oracle Park since 2023.
Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday at 6:45pm PT, Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: FS1 (Monday)
Projected starters
Monday: Nabil Crismatt (RHP 2-0, 2.14 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP 13-9, 3.17 ERA)
Tuesday: Zac Gallen (RHP 11-13, 4.77 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 10-6, 3.31 ERA)
Wednesday: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP 7-8, 5.22 ERA) vs. Carson Seymour (RHP 1-2, 4.25 ERA)
Dbacks: 72-72, 4th in NL West; 7.5 GB NLW, 4.5 GB Wild CardGiants: 72-71, 3rd in NL West; 7 GB NLW, 4 GB Wild Card
Arizona has activated Anthony DeSclafani and so it would not surprise me if he appears and pitches multiple shutout innings just when the Giants can’t afford them.