A massive four-game series in MLB begins Monday, Sept. 8 with the New York Mets visiting the Philadelphia Phillies. The hosts have a seven-game lead in the NL East with just under 20 games remaining in the season, but New York is still alive in the NL Wild Card standings and has a chance to cut the division gap to as little as three games if the Mets can complete a four-game sweep. First pitch for Monday’s opener is set for 6:45 p.m. ET on MLB Network.

Those interested in MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Mets vs. Phillies odds, predictions and player props from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.

The Mets are sending electric rookie Nolan McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA) out for tonight’s start, while the Phillies are countering with Aaron Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA). McLean has been the winning pitcher in all four of his career MLB outings, including when he pitched eight scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory over the Phillies back on Aug. 27. On the flip side, Nola has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his past six starts, as his ERA has risen from 4.61 to 6.78 over that span. 

McLean and Nola’s strikeout props are both at 5.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. McLean is the slightly bigger favorite to go Under 5.5 (Over +108, Under -144) than Nola (Over +104, Under -138). While both strikeout Overs have been given 3.5 stars (out of 5) by the SportsLine Projection Model, the model’s strongest recommendation for pitching props is Nola Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-112), which has been given 4.5 stars thanks to a projection of 3.1 earned runs allowed. 

Kyle Schwarber is second in baseball this season with 49 home runs, as he trails Seattle’s Cal Raleigh by four for the MLB lead. The Phillies slugger has the shortest odds to leave the yard in Monday’s game at +215, followed by Mets stars Juan Soto at +255 and Pete Alonso at +280. Bryce Harper and Francisco Lindor are each tied for the fourth-lowest odds at +420.

Here are the SportsLine Projection Model’s picks for Mets vs. Phillies on Monday:

NEW YORK METS at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | 9/8 | 6:45 PM ET

Money line
Pick: Phillies +109
Philadelphia wins in 54% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-152)
Philadelphia covers in 68% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8.5 (-121)
The Over hits in 58.8% of simulations

Projected score: Phillies 5.5, Mets 5.3