CINCINNATI (WXIX) – It’s getting very late into the season for a Cincinnati Reds team that has a 2.8% chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs, and the offense still hasn’t gotten rolling for any significant stretch of time this season.
The Reds’ most recent losses were a product of poor situational hitting as the Reds left the bases loaded in the ninth inning last Friday and then couldn’t get the automatic runner in from second base in extra innings last night. The Reds did homer twice in Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Padres.
But looking at the big picture of the 2025 season, the Reds’ offense has lacked power.
“I wish it had a bigger role,” Terry Francona said. “We are who we are. You can complain about it, or you can try to win. Our goal during the season is to win and make it reach, even if sometimes it doesn’t look like it might reach. That’s what competing is. But when the season is over, then you can look up and say maybe ‘here, here and here.’ But not now.”
As an organization, the Reds actions show that they value the hit tool more than the power tool. Nick Krall has spoken about wanting hitters who produce line drives and use the entire field because in GABP, those swings carry over the fence.
This year, the Reds’ coaching staff matched that approach from the front office by stressing situational hitting much more than the previous staff did.
But the Reds still haven’t netted out as a good situational hitting team in 2025. That gives them a smaller margin for error, and you make that up with power. A big home run swing can make you forget about a lot of smaller flaws. The Reds haven’t been able to do that this season.
“Home runs happen,” Tyler Stephenson said. “I don’t feel like we have a group of guys who are going up there with an all or nothing approach. We’ve got guys who can for sure hit home runs. We’ve got guys who put together good at-bats, we’ve got guys who can steal. We’ve been able to manufacture runs. (Situational hitting) is something we take a lot of pride in. You look at some games that we’ve lost and won that have been because of situational hitting. There’s a lot of value in that.”
Despite playing half of their games in GABP, the Reds rank 23rd in MLB in home runs in 2025. They ranked 19th last year and 14th in 2023. The 2025 Reds also rank 22nd in MLB in slugging percentage, 28th in barrel rate and 28th in hard hit percentage. Elly De La Cruz has one homer since the start of July, and he’s still the team leader with 19 homers.
There are 71 players in MLB with at least 20 homers this season. The Reds and the Pirates are the only two teams in MLB without a 20 home run hitter.
On the other hand, the Reds rank 13th in runs and 18th in OPS.
“Home runs are always going to be king,” hitting coach Chris Valaika said. “You see that in the playoffs. But you have to be versatile. You have to be creative. You have to be dynamic with your offense. If you just live and die by the home run, that’s how teams get hurt.”
The fact that the Reds don’t have a 20+ home run hitter right now starts with the way the team was constructed. Actually, it starts with payroll. During the offseason, the Reds had an obvious need for a power hitting outfield bat. Instead of getting one of the top options on the free agent or trade markets, the front office had to be creative because of payroll constraints. The Reds bet on a bounce back year from Austin Hays, and they made an aggressive trade for Gavin Lux (more of a hitter for average than a power bat).
Then at the trade deadline, the Reds still needed that power bat. But the front office prioritized defense as the Reds acquired Ke’Bryan Hayes.
This isn’t a Reds team that has been built to slug.
“Your team is your team,” Francona said. “You try to take their strengths and maximize it and take the weaknesses and minimize it. That’s what managing is.”
Since these aren’t the 2004 Red Sox, Francona and Valaika have tried to make situational hitting and bunting a bigger part of their identity. In one of the more memorable moments of the season, Noelvi Marte called his own bunt when he should have been hitting for power during a season where moving runners has been stressed this season. In Sal Stewart’s first big league plate appearance, he was instructed to move the runner over.
“There’s times where we tell a guy that (the lead runner) better be on third when your at-bat is over,” Francona said. “If you want to bunt. If you think you can move them.”
Francona cited a recent example of Gavin Lux moving a runner from second to third with a groundout down.
“That, to me, is winning baseball,” Francona said.
There’s a push and pull between situational hitting and power. When you’re trying to move the runner over, you can’t hit the ball over the fence. The situational hitting from the players has had mixed results.
“The emphasis has been around the team at-bats,” Valaika said. “Maybe there have been some situations where we’ve prioritized moving a runner or getting a runner in from third. Maybe you sacrifice — I don’t want to say some of the recklessness — some of the intent to hit a home run.”
Elly De La Cruz’s summer slump has taken some juice out of the middle of the Reds’ lineup. Since July 1, he has a .670 OPS. The Reds haven’t gotten much out of the cleanup spot this season, so De La Cruz isn’t getting much protection behind him in the lineup. His quad injury is also a factor.
“There’s always going to be someone in the lineup where they circle his name,” Valaika said. “Him dealing with some of that (quad) injury is not letting him get as much into his legs as he has in the past. The way he has been pitched, he’s seeing one of the fewest numbers of fastballs since the All-Star break. I don’t think he has been getting a ton to hit.”
De La Cruz does have 14 doubles and five triples since July 1, so he’s still driving the ball with some impact.
“When he has been getting his pitches, we’ve been seeing production,” Valaika said. “If you turn the baseball card over at the end of the day, he has an .800 OPS, 19 homers — he’ll get to 20+ over the rest of the season — close to 100 RBI. That’s a pretty good season.”
Steer ranks second on the Reds with 17 homers, and he has also been battling a leg injury for most of this summer. He has a higher barrel rate than he did last season, but there has been a big drop off in how consistently hard Steer hits the ball this season.
Austin Hays, who has been on the IL three times, ranks third on the Reds with 15 homers in just 92 games. His development has been a success story this year, but injuries are also a part of his story.
Matt McLain, who has 14 homers, has dealt with the grind of missing an entire season. He didn’t play in 2024 after having shoulder surgery.
“Missing a year-and-a-half with an injury is hard,” Valaika said. “The comparison that he has gotten is unfair. He played 90 games (in 2023) and was really good and then had some struggles. A lot of guys struggle in their second years. He has kept his head above water and stayed the course. Hopefully, we end the year even stronger.”
From a power perspective, two bright spots for the Reds are Noelvi Marte and Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Marte was one of the least impactful hitters in MLB in 2024, made some corrections and has been the Reds’ best hitter this summer. He has 12 homers in 74 games, which is a 26 homer pace over 162 games.
Hayes isn’t a slugger, but he already has more home runs with the Reds (3) than he did in 100 games with the Pirates before the trade deadline. Valaika and the hitting staff has been working with Hayes on pulling more fly balls and looking for chances to take a shot with a big swing.
TJ Friedl has 12 homers this season in what’s been a solid year as the Reds’ leadoff hitter, and Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson both have nine despite them both playing in 75 games or fewer.
“Overall, we’ve done a good job with our swing decisions,” Valaika said. “We’ve found ways to score runs. The home runs come and go. Across the board, maybe we haven’t had as many as they had in the past. Overall as a group, they’ve had a pretty decent number. The majority of our guys are in double digits. That’s a good starting point.”
While there are different ways to win and the Brewers also rank in the bottom-10 in team home runs this season, contenders like the Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and Phillies fill up the top-10.
The Reds have guys with pop, but their best sluggers haven’t gone on enough tears this season aside from the early season success of De La Cruz and Hays.
“The home runs are what they are,” Steer said. “It’s not like we’re trying to kick the ball around the yard. Homers come from a good approach. We’re all trying to hit line drives in the gap. Those turn into home runs. It’s not from a lack of effort. Homers happen when they happen. I don’t think that as an offense, your whole approach is let’s see how many homers we can hit. I don’t think that works. The home runs show up when they show up.”
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