For several seasons now, the leadoff spot in the lineup is something the Orioles can’t quite nail down. Since Tony Mansolino took over as interim manager, Jackson Holliday has assumed primary lead-off duties. Last season, Gunnar Henderson hit leadoff in about three-quarters of the O’s games—though that always seemed like a tenuous fit for Henderson’s skills. Not since Cedric Mullins in the 2021 and 2022 seasons has Baltimore had a true, go-to leadoff man. However, with the arrival of Dylan Beavers, maybe that’s all about to change.
The 23-year-old outfielder wasn’t seen as an elite prospect as he rose through the Orioles’ minor league system. However, in his short time in the big leagues, he has shown several elite traits. The biggest standout attribute we’ve seen from Beavers is his batting eye. In 68 plate appearances, Beavers is only swinging at 17.5% of pitches outside the zone. If he had enough PAs to qualify, that’d be the 4th-best mark in the big leagues and only slightly behind Juan Soto’s MLB-best 15.1% chase rate.
Beavers has used that impressive command of the strike zone to put up an even more impressive walk numbers. The rookie outfielder has worked 13 free passes so far, giving him a 19.1% walk rate. That rate would not only rank among the best in the big leagues, it’d lead all of MLB, ahead of the likes of Soto, Judge and Trout. That best-of-the-best walk rate has contributed to a .426 on-base percentage that’d be only second to Judge.
Those on-base skills would make Beavers a good fit for the leadoff spot on any team. Holliday’s so-so performance in the leadoff role should mean Beavers gets an opportunity to earn the promotion. The 21-year-old infielder has shown plenty of signs of improvement during his second season in the big leagues. Holliday is on the cusp of a 20 double/20 home run/20 stolen base season and now looks the part of a bona fide big leaguer.
However, his .248/.316/.394 slash line is hardly exemplary and below what many expect from the former No.1 overall draft pick. His average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS+ are all hovering around league average. And those numbers might not be a problem if he were hitting 7th or 8th in the order. However, they are detrimental to the Orioles’ offense when they’re coming from the player meant to be setting the table. Holliday’s OBP ranks 45th among all players with at least 100 ABs in the leadoff spot.
Holliday’s current level of production is similar to what the Orioles got from Cedric Mullins over the last three seasons. That profile comes with plenty of power/speed upside, but it also comes with inconsistency. It was this level of inconsistency that ultimately got Mullins demoted from the leadoff spot. And now, with Beavers starting to make his mark, the same thing might happen to Holliday.
Beavers has one more elite trait that makes him an intriguing candidate for the leadoff role: speed. In 15 competitive Beavers has registered a sprint speed of 29.2 feet/second. That top-end speed not only puts him among the 50 fastest players in all of baseball, but ties him with Jorge Mateo as the fastest player on the Orioles roster.
We’ve yet to see that speed translate into stolen bases at the major league level; so far, Beavers is 1-for-1 on his only stolen base attempt. However, his numbers from his minor league career suggest the steals are on the horizon. In 361 minor league games, Beavers stole 87 bags while only being caught 19 times—an 82% success rate. In 94 games this year at Triple-A, he was 23-for-28 on stolen base attempts.
Beavers may never have the stolen base upside of a Mateo or Enrique Bradfield Jr. (who both had 80 Run grades as prospects compared to Beavers’ 55). Yet he seems perfectly capable of matching the stolen base output we saw from Mullins while getting on-base at a higher clip.
Mansolino previously confirmed that Beavers and Samuel Basallo will continue to hit in the bottom half of the lineup as they adjust to life in the big leagues. So any chance at seeing Beavers in the leadoff role will likely have to wait until 2026. And while Beavers’ on-base skills certainly appear to be elite, the “small sample size” caveat certainly still applies to the O’s rookie. He’ll need to continue this level of play across the Orioles’ remaining six series if he wants to convince Mansolino (or the manager that replaces him) that he deserves the opportunity to lead off.
It’s clear the Orioles’ offense needs a shake-up if this team wants to return to contention in 2026. After finishing fourth in the majors in runs/game last season, Baltimore has slipped to 16th this season. While outside reinforcement may be necessary to lift this too-often lifeless offense, this one internal change could be the first domino in the chain reaction that returns the Orioles to relevance. So consider this the start of the “Beavers For Leadoff” campaign.