ARLINGTON — It’s time for the best — and shortest — season of the year: scoreboard-watching season.
With the Rangers in both the AL West and AL wild card race, but playing from behind, it’s not just about them winning as many games as possible, but also how those teams around them handle their business. So, let’s get ready for some scoreboard watching by breaking down the schedules of contenders.
First, a note: We did not include the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, the Nos. 1-2 wild card teams at the moment, in this. Both were five games ahead of the Rangers in the standings. With 16 games to go, that’s almost untenable. In all likelihood, some combination of current AL East leader Toronto, the Yankees and Red Sox will account for the Nos. 1, 4 and 5 seeds in the playoffs. The Nos. 1 an 2 seeds (currently Toronto and Detroit) would get byes, while No. 4 hosts No. 5 and No. 3 hosts No. 6 in the best-of-three wild card round.
As of Tuesday, the Rangers’ path was pretty defined. If they can win the wild card spot, they will either travel to Houston or Seattle (whichever wins the West). If they win the division, they’d host either Houston or Seattle.
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Now, with that in mind, here’s a look at the teams crowded around the Rangers in the playoff chase, how their remaining schedules look and what to know (thru games of Sept. 8, unless otherwise noted):
Houston Astros
Current status: Lead AL West, hold No. 3 seed
Tiebreaker status with Rangers: Rangers lead, 6-4 with three games to play in Houston (Sept. 15-17)
Remaining schedule: at Toronto (Sept. 10-11), at Atlanta (Sept. 12-14), vs. Rangers (Sept. 15-17), vs. Seattle (Sept. 19-21), at A’s (Sept. 23-25), at LA Angels (Sept 26-28).
Remaining schedule strength: With remaining opponents holding a .495 composite winning percentage, Houston’s schedule ranks as the 18th most difficult, per Tankathon.
What’s left: The Astros were to play 12 of their final 18 games on the road, which has not been a huge challenge for them this year. At 35-34, entering Tuesday, they were one of just six teams in the majors with a winning road record. All of those teams are currently holding playoff spots. No, the biggest challenge likely comes at home next week when the two teams chasing them come to Daikin Park. After the Rangers, Seattle comes to Houston for three games. Suffice to say, if the Rangers win the series in Houston, they stand a great chance to hold a playoff spot by the end of next week because one of the two teams ahead of them will be guaranteed at least two additional losses while the Rangers are at home against Miami.
Seattle Mariners
Current status: Currently hold third — and final — wild card spot
Tiebreaker status with Rangers: Seattle owns it after winning the season series, 10-3.
Remaining schedule: vs. St. Louis (Sept. 10), vs. LA Angels (Sept. 11-14), at Kansas City (Sept. 16-18), at Houston (Sept. 19-21), vs. Colorado (Sept. 23-25), vs. LA Dodgers (Sept. 26-28)
Remaining schedule strength: With remaining opponents holding a .470 composite winning percentage, Seattle’s schedule ranks as the third easiest in MLB, per Tankathon.
What’s left: Like the Rangers, the Mariners haven’t been very good on the road. At 34-41, they have the 20th best road record. It is 1 ½ games better than the Rangers (30-42), though, which interestingly accounts for the difference between the teams in the standings. Seattle, which always logs the most road miles in baseball, has wilted on the road in the second half, going just 8-17. That included a pair of killer three-city trips. The one week remaining on the road has them facing Kansas City, which entered Tuesday three games back of the Mariners, and the Astros. In Seattle’s one previous trip to Houston, the Mariners lost three of four back in May, then relinquished first place in the AL West a week later. Also of note: Seattle’s season-ending series is against the world champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who still have a fight on their hands in the NL West race.
Cleveland Guardians
Current status: Trail Rangers for wild card stalking spot by one game, Seattle by 2 ½
Tiebreaker status with Rangers: Rangers lead, 3-0 with three games at Cleveland to end regular season
Remaining schedule: vs. Kansas City (Sept. 10-11), vs. Chicago White Sox (Sept. 12-14), at Detroit (Sept. 16-18), at Minnesota (Sept. 19-21), vs. Detroit (Sept. 23-25), vs. Rangers (Sept. 26-28)
Remaining schedule strength: With remaining opponents holding a .495 composite winning percentage, Cleveland’s schedule ranks as the 19th most difficult in MLB, per Tankathon.
What’s left: The schedule strength stat here may be a little deceiving. The Guardians play 12 of their final 17 games against contenders, but the winning percentage is brought down by seven games against the two worst records in the AL. And Cleveland has not played well against winning teams. The Guardians entered Tuesday just 33-44 against teams at or above .500 this year, 21st in the majors. How wild card chasers fare against winning teams may determine who ends up with the spot. Kansas City, which entered Tuesday trailing Cleveland by a half game and the Rangers by 1 ½ games, ranks 23rd at 32-44 and the Rangers are 24th at 32-45. Also of note: Cleveland has struggled against lefties. Might the Rangers have any opportunity to line up Jake Latz and Patrick Corbin to pitch in that series?
Kansas City Royals
Current status: Trails Cleveland by 1 ½ games after losing to Guardians Tuesday, the Rangers by 2 ½ for the stalking spot and Seattle by four for final wild card.
Tiebreaker status with Rangers: Kansas City owns it after winning the season series, 6-1.
Remaining schedule: at Cleveland (Sept. 10-11), at Philadelphia (Sept. 12-14), vs. Seattle (Sept. 16-18), vs. Toronto (Sept. 19-21), at LA Angels (Sept. 23-25), at A’s (Sept. 26-28)
Remaining schedule strength: With remaining opponents holding a .522 composite winning percentage, Kansas City’s schedule ranks as the sixth most difficult in MLB, per Tankathon.
What’s left: If the Royals can make it to the last week in contention, the schedule would seem to soften up for the them, but first 12 games against teams with a composite .549 winning percentage. It’s a daunting stretch and worth a reminder that Kansas City is only 32-45 against teams with winning records. The Royals losing consecutive games to Cleveland to start the week puts them in a deeper hole.
Wednesday’s TV/Radio listings (Sept. 10)Rangers playoff tracker: How close is Texas to a spot in the postseason?
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