Despite the loss, Peralta credits his successful outing to staying on his plan
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta struggled at times against the San Francisco Giants, yet in the end, he gave up no runs during five innings on Saturday, Aug. 23, at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
If four things need to go right for a team to clinch, it’s probably not worth betting on. It’s just as unusual for all four things to go wrong, but that’s what the Milwaukee Brewers saw Sept. 9.
Needing a win — and losses by the Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers — to secure a playoff berth, the Brewers got the opposite: A 5-4 loss to the Rangers and wins by all three of those foes.
It means the Brewers are left needing all four things again Sept. 10: A victory over the Rangers and losses by the Giants, Reds and Dodgers to secure a playoff berth. Far likelier is that the team will get what it needs during the weekend return to American Family Field, starting with a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sept. 12.
Here’s what to know:
If the Brewers’ magic number to beat the Giants is three, how can they clinch already today, Sept. 10?
The Brewers “magic number” is theoretically two, but to “eliminate” the Giants (guarantee a better record), the number is three. So how does that work?
If the Brewers win, they’d be guaranteed a record of no worse than 90-72. They would be guaranteed to finish better than every team on the outside looking in of the playoff picture in a head-to-head comparison, except the Giants (currently 74-71).A Reds loss Sept. 10 would put the team at 73 losses. Though the Brewers have the tiebreaker over Cincinnati in a head-to-head scenario, the Reds still need that extra loss because a three-way tiebreaker scenario remains theoretically possible. A tie with Chicago and Milwaukee would give the Reds the division title, especially because they would have won all seven remaining head-to-head games with Chicago and Milwaukee to pull this off.A Giants loss would put them at 72 losses. The Giants have a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage with Milwaukee, so that would seem to keep the Giants afloat another day in this comparison. However …If the Dodgers lose tonight, they’ll be at 65 losses. We know the Dodgers and Giants have seven more games against each other. So, either the Giants will lose a 73rd game in that sequence (and get “eliminated” from catching the Brewers) or the Dodgers will suffer at least 72 losses. The Brewers have a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Dodgers and would get priority in that circumstance, meaning the Brewers would be ahead of enough teams to be guaranteed a playoff spot.In the LOL-worthy scenario where San Francisco wins the rest of its games, the Brewers lose the rest of theirs and the Dodgers win everything left on their docket aside from the Giants games, all three would be 90-72 for two wild-card spots. San Francisco would get the No. 2 spot by virtue of having the best head-to-head record against both other contenders, and Milwaukee would get the No. 3 spot over Los Angeles.
Obviously, all of this is about timeline and not certainty; the Brewers are going to clinch a playoff berth, it’s just a matter of when.
The real thing the Brewers need to be concerned about: The Phillies
The Brewers have a magic number of 11 to finish better than the Cubs and win the division. The magic number is nine to finish ahead of the Dodgers (currently leading the West) and put the team in great shape to get a first-round bye. If the Brewers win the division and finish with a better record than one of the other two division winners, it will get to skip the wild-card round and advance straight to the National League Division Series.
The East-leading Phillies, however, are now within 3½ games of the Brewers, having gone 6-2 to start September and having won nine of 12 overall. The Phillies are only three games back of the Brewers in the loss column for the No. 1 overall seed, though the Brewers do have the tiebreaker.
That’s probably not as significant as procuring that first-round bye. But finishing with the top record in the National League would guarantee home-field advantage throughout the National League postseason. Right now, the Brewers (89-57) have the best record in baseball overall (the Phillies are next), meaning if the season ended today, Milwaukee would get hosting priority for all rounds, including the World Series.
Who do all these teams play Sept. 10?
If the Brewers win and you want to see a playoff clinch with your own eyes, you’ll need to stay up late to watch some west-coast baseball.
Milwaukee at Texas: Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta (16-5, 2.50 ERA) vs. Rangers right-hander Merrill Kelly (11-7, 3.16 ERA), 1:35 p.m. CTArizona at San Francisco: Diamondbacks left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (7-8, 5.22 ERA) vs. Giants right-hander Carson Seymour (1-2, 4.25 ERA), 2:45 p.m. CTCincinnati at San Diego: Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott (8-6, 2.88) vs. Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.85), 7:40 p.m. CTColorado at Los Angeles: Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland (4-14, 5.10 ERA) vs. Dodgers left-hander Blake Snell (3-4, 3.19 ERA), 9:10 p.m. CTWhen are the Cubs and Phillies playing today?Chicago Cubs at Atlanta: Cubs TBA vs. Braves left-hander Chris Sale (5-4, 2.38 ERA), 6:15 p.m. CTNew York Mets at Philadelphia: Mets right-hander Clay Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA) vs. Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (12-5, 2.60 ERA), 5:45 p.m. CTCould the Brewers clinch on the off-day, Sept. 11?
No. None of the four teams in the clinching scenario are playing Sept. 11, so if it doesn’t happen Sept. 10, it’ll have to wait at least two more days. The Phillies and Mets will wrap their four-game series on Sept. 11, though.