The Texas Rangers are — as unlikely as it might’ve seemed just three weeks ago — now in a position to take a gander at what their potential postseason position may be if they do successfully conclude the resurgent run that they’ve started.
The Rangers swept the first-place Milwaukee Brewers at Globe Life Field Wednesday afternoon and are a season-best seven games over .500 with a 77-70 record. They now trail the Seattle Mariners for the American League’s third and final Wild Card position by just one-and-a-half games. The AL West lead, held currently by the Houston Astros, is as close as its been since May 18.
The variety is a caveat here. Texas has 15 games left to play this season and, mathematically and theoretically, can still finish the season as the American League’s top playoff seed or miss the playoffs entirely.
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We’ll remain realistic. The former scenario is incredibly improbable and would require both a miraculous run from the Rangers and a number of historic collapses from first-place teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers. The latter outcome, if you were to probe the current playoff odds from FanGraphs which give the Rangers just a 30% chance to qualify, remains very much in play.
In the middle of those results, though, lie the two most likely places in which the Rangers could land if they do qualify for the postseason: as the AL West champions or as the AL’s third Wild Card team.
The AL West champion route
This is the most ambitious and, as it stands, unlikely path that the Rangers can take into the playoffs.
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The first-place Astros hold a two-and-a-half game lead over the Rangers (and a one game lead over the Mariners) in the AL West through Wednesday’s slate of games. A Rangers division title — which would be their first since the 2016 season — requires Houston to continue to play sub.-500 baseball and for Texas to maintain its unflappable performance with a host of stars sidelined. The two teams play three games against each other next week at Daikin Park in a series that will likely play a large hand in the division race.
If the Rangers leapfrog the Astros, and if they win the AL West, they would all but surely land the AL’s No. 3 playoff seed with the worst record of all three division winners as the Blue Jays (83-62) and Tigers (84-62) have built decent leads in that department.
The Rangers would then host a three-game Wild Card series at Globe Life Field against the third-ranked Wild Card team. These are the two most-probable matchups in that scenario.
The Rangers would host the Astros — whom they are 6-4 against this season overall and 4-3 against at Globe Life Field — if Houston slides past Texas but maintains its advantage over Seattle to clinch the third Wild Card berth. The Rangers would host the Mariners — whom they are 3-10 against this season overall and 2-4 against at Globe Life Field — if Seattle also overtakes Houston to clinch the third Wild Card berth.
The Mariners and Astros play three games against each other Sep. 19-21 that should have significant implications on each team’s postseason position. It may very well determine the AL West champion; it may also determine which team the Rangers will host in the first round.
The two teams with the best opportunities to disrupt the above plans are the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals. The Cleveland Guardians (74-71) are three-and-a-half games behind the Mariners in the Wild Card race and the Kansas City Royals (74-72) are four games behind. Both would need to out-perform Seattle and Houston in the season’s final two-and-a-half weeks to factor into the mix here.
The Wild Card route
Or, as we can call it, the best bet that the Rangers have to play October baseball this year.
This, effectively, remains a race between the Rangers and Mariners. The Guardians are two games behind the Rangers and the Royals would need to jump three teams in their last 16 games to qualify. The Rangers swept the Guardians at Globe Life Field last month and will play three more against them at Cleveland’s Progressive Field to close the season. It’s very likely that there will be serious stakes for at least one of those teams that final weekend.
For now, though, the Rangers will focus on what’s in front of them versus what’s behind them. The Rangers could theoretically overtake the Mariners for the third Wild Card berth as early as Saturday if Texas wins its first two games against the Mets and Seattle loses its first three vs. the Los Angeles Angels.
The Rangers would then need to maintain a better record than the Mariners to finish the season. Seattle owns the head-to-head tiebreaker and would clinch any playoff spot — whether it’s the division crown or a Wild Card berth — over the Rangers because of it. There is, of course, the potential that the Astros play themselves out of the postseason entirely and the Rangers and Mariners are left as the division’s two lone participants.
Regardless, if the Rangers do clinch the AL’s final playoff spot, these are the two most-likely first-round scenarios in the instance that the AL West winner does remain the No. 3 seed.
The Rangers would play the Astros at Daikin Park — where they are 2-1 at this season (and, if you think back to the 2023 ALCS, historically decent there in the postseason) — in the three-game Wild Card series. The Rangers would play the Mariners at T-Mobile Park — where they were 1-6 at this season and 14-43 at since the 2019 season — in the three-game Wild Card series.
The best case scenario may be abundantly clear.
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