The Kansas City Royals (74-72) and the Cleveland Guardians (74-71) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 7-5

The Royals picked up a 4-3 win as short ‘dogs (+105) in Wednesday’s game as the Under (8) cashed. The top of the order was red-hot, with 3B Maikel Garcia, SS Bobby Witt Jr. and 1B Vinnie Pasquantino combining to go 6-for-12 (.500) with 2 runs scored and 2 RBIs. The triumvirate each had 2 hits, collecting 6 of the team’s 9 hits.

The Guardians won 10-2 in the opener Monday, and won a 2-0 decision on Tuesday. In Wednesday’s loss, 1B Kyle Manzardo launched his 26th homer, finishing 1-for-3 with a walk and 2 RBIs. OF Steven Kwan and SS Brayan Rocchio also collected a pair of hits apiece.

The Guardians enter the day 3 1/2 games back of the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card, and just a half-game ahead of the Royals. Cleveland has a game in hand on Kansas City, who has just 16 games remaining.

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Royals at Guardians projected starters

RHP Stephen Kolek vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Kolek (5-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 92 2/3 innings with the San Diego Padres and Royals.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 11-2 home win vs. Twins SaturdayFirst 2 starts with KC: 1-0, 2.08 ERA (13 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K2025 home stats: 2-3, 6.55 ERA (33 IP, 24 ER), 5 HR, 6 BB, 21 K, 1.33 WHIP in 6 starts with Padres and RoyalsCareer vs. Guardians: 0-0, Infinity ERA, 0 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 4 Batters Faced in 1 relief appearance

Williams (10-5, 3.17 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 150 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H (1 solo HR), 3 BB, 3 K in 7-1 road victory vs. Tampa Bay RaysLast 7 starts: 4-1, 2.23 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 10 ER) 16 BB, 37 K, 1.09 WHIP2025 home stats: 6-2, 3.00 ERA (75 IP, 25 ER), 9 HR, 32 BB, 86 K, 1.20 WHIP in 14 startsCareer vs. Royals: 2-1, 2.27 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 2 HR, 11 BB, 35 K, 0.91 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 7 startsGuardians at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:38 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Royals +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Guardians -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Royals at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Guardians 4, Royals 3

The GUARDIANS (-145) are worth a look as moderate favorites in the series finale, as they not only look to keep the Royals down, but Cleveland looks to keep its slim playoff hopes alive.

Cleveland had its 5-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 4-3 loss, but it 3-1 in the past 4 starts by Williams, who is pitching very well.

The Royals +1.5 (-190) are a little on the expensive side, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. While Kolek has pitched well since being acquired from San Diego, he hasn’t pitched in a game with this many playoff implications, perhaps ever. Backing Kansas City is a risk, especially since it is 4-6 in the past 10 games, and 1-3 in the past 4 games on the run line as an underdog.

PASS.

UNDER 7.5 (+100) is the lean at even-money, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games for the Royals, while going 10-2 in the past 12 outings since Aug. 29.

For the Guardians, the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games, with the pitching staff allowing a total of 10 runs in the previous 6 outings, or 1.7 runs per game.

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