Get MLB picks and player props for Friday, September 12, 2025. Featuring bets for the Padres, Red Sox, and Brewers.
If you’re hunting for the best MLB picks and player props September 11, 2025, has to offer, you’re in the right place. Here, you’ll find some plays I have featuring Padres, Red Sox, and Brewers.
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MLB Picks and Player Props September 12, 2025
San Diego Padres team total over 2.5 through first five innings (-125) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Padres have a great matchup against Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, who has lived up to his rough reputation. He enters with a 6.60 ERA and a 5.83 xERA, struggling to miss bats while surrendering 10 home runs across just 12 starts. Surprisingly, he’s actually been worse on the road than at Coors Field. Gordon has given up 19 earned runs in only 18.1 road innings, compared to 25 runs over 41.2 innings at home. Both left- and right-handed hitters have handled him well, but lefties have done the most damage, accounting for seven of his 10 home runs allowed.
The Padres have already shown they can take advantage, having tagged Gordon for six runs on six hits over 3.2 innings in his last outing. Gordon relies heavily on just two pitches, his four-seam fastball and slider, which he throws about 80% of the time. Tonight’s projected San Diego lineup matches up well against both offerings, posting a .372 wOBA and .197 ISO against the four-seamer, and a .338 wOBA with a .156 ISO against the slider. Given the recent history and these splits, another rough night for Gordon seems likely.
Nathaniel Lowe 2+ H/R/RBI (+100) vs. New York Yankees
Lowe has enjoyed a bit of an offensive resurgence since joining the Boston Red Sox. Through 19 games he is slashing .263/.338/.456 with a .342 wOBA and a .193 ISO. He has recorded at least two combined hits, runs, or RBIs in 10 of those 19 games, showing steady production.
Tonight marks the start of a massive series against the Yankees with Lowe expected to hit in the heart of the Red Sox lineup. The matchup is favorable against Luis Gil, who leans heavily on his four seam fastball. Lowe will also benefit from lineup protection as teammates like Jarren Duran and Alex Bregman excel against the four seam, creating additional RBI opportunities.
Individually, Lowe has handled the pitch well, posting a .335 wOBA and .166 ISO against the four seam. He also matches up well against Gil’s worst offering, the slider, where he owns a .345 wOBA and a .289 ISO. With both the matchup and lineup context working in his favor, Lowe is positioned for another strong performance.
Quinn Priester to record a win (+140) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals offense has been dreadful. They have scored only 26 runs in September, the fewest in the league, which works out to just 2.8 per game. As a team they are slashing .205/.268/.298 with a .253 wOBA during that stretch.
In their matchup with Priester, they will see a steady diet of sinkers, his primary pitch. Tonight’s projected lineup has combined for only a .317 wOBA and a .091 ISO against sinkers. On the other side, the Brewers’ offense is rolling, and they draw a favorable matchup with Andre Pallante. That puts Priester in a strong position to secure a win.
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