The New York Mets host the Texas Rangers in a marquee interleague matchup at Citi Field on Friday, September 12, with first pitch set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Texas will send Jacob deGrom (11–7, 2.78 ERA) to the mound against his former team, while rookie right-hander Jonah Tong (1–1, 4.09 ERA) gets the start for New York. With deGrom making his return to Queens and Tong looking to build on an encouraging start, Mets fans and MLB bettors alike will have plenty of storylines to follow.

According to the latest simulation results, Pete Alonso has emerged as Friday’s top home run candidate, edging out Juan Soto as the most likely Mets slugger to go deep. Those updated projections add another layer of intrigue for bettors eyeing player props in a matchup already filled with big-name talent.

As such, Dimers’ experts have released updated Mets-Rangers predictions and betting insights, along with a full slate of stat projections for both New York and Texas hitters.

Updated Mets vs. Rangers hitter projectionsPlayerTeamMatchup1+ Hit2+ HitsTo Get RBITo Hit HRPete AlonsoNYMTEX vs. NYM59.3%19.2%37.2%19.4%Juan SotoNYMTEX vs. NYM61.5%19.1%35.6%18.9%Mark VientosNYMTEX vs. NYM61.0%20.4%34.9%16.9%Gunnar HendersonBALBAL vs. TOR65.9%23.5%35.5%16.2%Samuel BasalloBALBAL vs. TOR61.2%20.3%33.1%15.8%Francisco AlvarezNYMTEX vs. NYM56.7%15.7%32.3%14.8%Colton CowserBALBAL vs. TOR59.7%18.0%30.5%14.3%Francisco LindorNYMTEX vs. NYM62.4%20.8%28.9%13.8%Coby MayoBALBAL vs. TOR58.7%17.7%30.1%13.4%Ryan MountcastleBALBAL vs. TOR65.1%23.3%34.4%13.3%Jeremiah JacksonBALBAL vs. TOR64.3%22.5%30.2%13.1%Brett BatyNYMTEX vs. NYM61.2%19.8%30.6%12.7%Mets vs. Rangers betting preview

This preview features home run projections, winning probabilities, and best bets for the New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers, based on fresh simulations from Dimers’ experts ahead of Friday’s matchup.

Check out the interactive widget below to view the latest run line, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Mets-Rangers showdown at Citi Field.

Game details

The key information you need before the Mets vs. Orioles MLB game.

Teams: New York Mets vs. Texas RangersDate: Friday, September 12, 2025Time: 7:10 PM ETVenue: Citi FieldStarting pitchersMets: Jonah Tong (1-1, 4.09 ERA)Orioles: Jacob deGrom (11-7, 2.78 ERA)Odds

The latest and best odds for the MLB clash between the Mets and Rangers.

Spread: Mets favored at -1.5Total (Over/Under): 7.5Moneyline Odds: Rangers -102, Mets -110

The odds and lines in this article reflect the best available from select sportsbooks at the time of publishing and may be updated as they change.

Mets fans in eligible states can claim the BetMGM promo code “CUSE150″ to unlock bonus bets for Friday’s matchup against the Rangers. Meanwhile, bettors across the country can explore additional offers, including Prime Day betting deals with the Bet365 bonus code “SYRACUSE” or a new DraftKings promotion.

Expert prediction: Mets vs. Rangers

Dimers’ predictive model simulated Friday’s Mets vs. Rangers matchup at Citi Field 10,000 times, producing updated win probabilities and betting insights. The simulations give New York a 54% chance of winning, compared to 46% for Texas.

The current betting odds list the Mets as slight favorites at -110 on the moneyline, while the Rangers sit at -102. The spread has New York at -1.5, and the total is set at 7.5 runs.

Mets vs. Rangers best bet

The top play for this game is Over 7.5 runs (-110), supported by a 52.6% probability from Dimers’ model. With Jacob deGrom returning to Queens and Jonah Tong still finding his footing in the Mets’ rotation, both offenses could be positioned to take advantage.

MLB Friday: Mets vs. Rangers

First pitch at Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. All predictions and best bets in this preview are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations and reflect the latest probabilities available at the time of publication. They are designed to help bettors make more informed decisions at online sportsbooks.

As always, odds are subject to change.

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