The jump to the Major Leagues has been a rough one for Brady House. If you paid attention to his track record in the Minor Leagues, this should not be much of a surprise. House has often struggled for a little while when he reached a new level before turning things around. However, there is one thing that has me a little bit worried, House’s total lack of power.
For as long as Brady House has been a prospect, his raw power has been his standout trait. It was why he became a famous and highly regarded prospect in the 2021 Draft. The Nationals took the powerful slugger with 11th pick in that draft. He was the first draft pick of the rebuilding era.
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It was a bit of a slow burn, but House worked his way through the Minor Leagues, developing a reputation as a powerful third baseman with good defense. He always hit the ball hard, but the over the fence power did not always show up. However, it was emerging gradually.
In 2023, House hit 12 homers in 88 games, along with a .312 batting average. That average was so high because of how hard he hit the ball. In 2024, House’s average fell, but he was hitting more home runs. He hit 19 home runs in 2024 across a couple levels in what was seen as a down year for him.
That power blossomed even more in Triple-A this season. In just 65 games, House blasted 13 home runs. Through all of this, there were some questions about House’s game. His strikeout rates were always fairly high and he chased a lot. House has never run high walk rates, and I figured that would hurt him in the MLB. That has been true, but for me, the biggest issue is his power disappearing.
The fact that House is hitting .241 with a walk rate below 3% is not that surprising. His first stint in Triple-A was pretty similar to this. However, I am alarmed by the fact that House has only hit three home runs in 224 at bats.
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For House to survive as a big league hitter, he needs to be a 20+ home run guy. He is not going to walk very much and the strikeouts will limit his average. That means he needs to slug, which he has not been doing.
So what does House need to change to tap into his power. Well, there are a couple things. First, he simply needs to lift the ball, particularly to the pull side. House’s average launch angle sits at just 5.8 degrees, which is well below the MLB average.
You cannot hit for power if you d0 not lift the ball. Right now Brady House is not doing that consistently enough. In a piece earlier this month, we talked about how House needs to pull the ball in the air more. That is the way for him to hit for power.
All three of House’s home runs this season have been very similar. They have been pulled fly balls off of hanging breaking balls. House has actually held his own this year against breaking stuff, hitting .253 with all of his home runs.
However, fastballs have been giving him fits. He is whiffing at 23.4% of them, the average launch angle against heaters is only 5 degrees and he has not hit any home runs against fastballs. Being on time against fastballs is one thing that Brady House really needs to work on this offseason. If you cannot consistently hit the fastball, life becomes really tough for you as a hitter.
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If you are not on time, it is tough to pull the ball in the air for power. That is part of the reason why House’s air pull percentage is only 11.7%, which is below average. For some guys, pulling the ball in the air doesn’t matter as much, but for a guy like House it is a big deal.
While House has big time power, he does not have the otherworldly raw power of a guy like James Wood. He cannot just drive low line drives the other way out of ball parks like Wood can. That means he needs to optimize his angles to tap into his power. If House is to be a long term success, he has to do that.
A lot of Brady House’s struggles were to be expected. Guys with chase heavy approaches tend to have a rough adaptation period in the MLB. However, that chase means that House needs to slug.
If House can tap into his power, he can be a very effective player, even with a lower on base percentage. His defense at the hot corner is very good, so that gives him a solid floor. However, House needs to find a way to contribute on offense.
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A .585 OPS and .255 on base percentage is just not going to play at this level. His approach based limitations make the development of his power a make or break issue. If he cannot tap into the power, House will not be the long term third baseman for this team. Quite frankly, it is that simple. Brady House needs to rediscover his power, or else he is in trouble.