CHICAGO – The Cubs hoped to kick off their penultimate homestand by chipping away at securing their playoff spot.
One day in and they’ve started on the right foot.
They rallied from a first-inning deficit to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 6-4 on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. The Cubs (84-63) reduced their magic number to clinch a playoff spot to seven games with the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants playing later Friday night on the West Coast. It’s the Cubs’ 84th win of the season, which surpasses their win total in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
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The Cubs hold a four-game lead on the San Diego Padres for the top spot in the NL Wild Card and have a magic number of 13 for that spot. Ensuring that position would mean they’d host the three-game set at Wrigley Field in the first round.
The Cubs are five games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central, a highly unlikely, but not impossible, number to overcome. The Brewers open a three-game set in Milwaukee against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday night.
Here are three takeaways from the Cubs’ win over Tampa Bay (72-75):
Offense fights back
The Cubs fell into an early hole and – with a struggling second-half offense – it was fair to worry about how the Cubs might start the series with a win.
Well, creating many chances and cashing in on them helps do that.
Three of the first four hitters in the second frame reached base, resulting in a run. Then, Michael Busch delivered an RBI single and Ian Happ added a run-scoring knock of his own to tie the game.
An inning later, Nico Hoerner drew a one-out walk and scored on a Moisés Ballesteros triple a batter later. Ballesteros would score three hitters later on a fielder’s choice. Happ added a solo shot an inning later.
Despite their second-half struggles, the Cubs have been creating opportunities like they did in the second, third and fourth innings. The problem is, since the Midsummer Classic, they haven’t routinely cashed in on those chances. They did on Friday, and it allowed them to keep pressure on the Tampa Bay pitching staff, causing them to burn through six pitchers on Friday.
The Cubs’ offensive diversity was also a welcome sign. They have a clear focus on the day-to-day, that’s for sure, but there’s also a slight eye on the future. With 99.9% playoff odds, you have to keep an eye on October. In the playoffs, runs are a premium and generating scoring opportunities is paramount.
The Cubs showcasing their abilities to deliver in those instances is important.
Bittersweet return
Christopher Morel stepped up to the plate for his at-bat of the game and received a nice ovation from the 38,794 in attendance at Wrigley Field. It was Morel’s first time back at the Friendly Confines since being traded to Tampa Bay last July as part of a package that brought Isaac Paredes back to Chicago.
Two pitches in, and the cheers for Morel had quickly dissipated. Morel deposited an 0-1 fastball from Matthew Boyd into the left field bleachers, a 383-foot blast with a 107.4 mph exit velocity that gave Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead. It’s just his 11th home run of the year.
That at-bat was almost the perfect summation of Morel. The first pitch was a 72.4-mph curveball below that zone that Morel completely whiffed at. He absolutely locked in a pitch later and showed off his power.
Morel was a fan favorite in his time in Chicago, belting 60 home runs in his three seasons with the Cubs. He’s had a difficult season in Tampa Bay, accumulating a -0.2 fWAR entering Friday, and has a .692 OPS in 95 games.
He struck out in his second at-bat and finished 1-for-4 with two strikeouts.
Friday sums up Morel as a player. He has eye-catching power, but he doesn’t crush extra-base hits at the rate of a traditional slugger, and he strikes out a lot – he has a 36% strikeout rate this season. Throw in the fact that he doesn’t have a natural defensive home – he was the DH on Friday – and you see why it was difficult to see him on the Cubs’ long-term.
He is a tantalizing player when he’s in a groove, like he was in the first bat, but there are still plenty of question marks in his game.
Boyd’s bounceback
Morel’s home run started things on the wrong foot for the Cubs and looked to be the start of a long day for Boyd.
The All-Star has struggled in his last six starts entering Friday. He had a 5.05 ERA in that span, and the Cubs were 1-5 in that stretch. Now, the record is a bit of a fluke because he has two quality starts in that span and both resulted in Cubs’ losses, but still, he’s hit a bit of a wall lately.
But Boyd bounced back after Morel’s blast. He worked around a one-out single and retired eight straight batters. He gave up just one run the rest of the way and allowed the Cubs to stay within striking distance and ultimately win the game.
That one run came in the fourth when Boyd again worked out of trouble – thanks to his signature move. He allowed a single and a walk to start the frame and picked up a flyout. With Everson Pereira leaning off first base, he threw it to Michael Busch at first to nab Pereira and pick up his 11th pickoff of the year, the most in a season by a Cubs pitcher since at least 1901. The last pitcher with that many in a season was Clayton Kershaw in 2012.
Boyd having a good response to a tough start is crucial for the Cubs. Just a few weeks ago, it was pretty clear that the Cubs’ playoff rotation for a three-game Wild Card series would be Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton in some order. Lately, it’s become a valid discussion whether Horton or Imanaga would take the ball to start the series, and, with Boyd’s struggles, the No. 3 spot was in question.
In a potential Game three, length out of Boyd wouldn’t be necessary, but having him pitch well is. The performance after Morel’s home run was a good sign for the Cubs.