When the A’s dealt Mason Miller to the Padres because AJ Preller agreed to make Leo De Vries available, we knew De Vries was a special talent. He was, and still is, only 18 meaning it’s premature to project his level of big league success and at least the calendar would suggest he won’t be arriving anytime in the near future.

Today we look at the timeline, with the presumption that De Vries will reach the big leagues and the hope that he is as good as he appears to be.

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Padres Push

De Vries was already on the fast track when the A’s acquired him. The Padres had already pushed him to A+ ball at the tender age of 18, where he was holding his own with a .245/.357/.410 slash line that included an impressive 13.9% BB rate.

From Lansing To Midland In 2 Weeks

The A’s have done nothing to slow down the runaway train whose destination is West Sacramento, promoting De Vries to AA Midland after just 15 games at A+ Lansing, where his .268/.338/.518 line was 21% better than league average.

Predictably and understandably, De Vries got off to a slow start in AA, going 6 for his first 31 (.194) and finishing August 8 for 42 (,190). Then the calendar turned to September and after just 11 games in AA De Vries has taken off and not looked back.

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In 8 September games De Vries is 15 for 38 with 4 HR, giving him a slash line of .395/.410/.842. Overall, in 19 AA games he now has an impressive .275/.348/.513 line with a solid 9.8% BB rate and a very manageable 20.7% K rate.

What’s Next?

This brings us to the questions of 2026 and 2027. MLB Pipeline lists De Vries’ ETA as being 2027, which always seemed aggressive considering he will be only 20 all season (he has an October birthday). As we sit now, the middle of the 2027 season is looking like the latest we would see De Vries.

Here’s what we know: De Vries is 18 and will be 19 all of the 2026 season. He is currently playing at AA against competition that is, on average, 5-6 years older than he is. In the small sample that is 19 games he is batting 32% better than league average and only that low due to a short adjustment period in which he batted under .200.

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Plausible Scenarios

1. De Vries starts the 2026 season at AA where he will have played less than 25 games. Assuming continued good performance, inevitably he will be promoted to AAA sometime during the season. He will finish the season at AAA where he will be positioned to vie for a spot on the roster out of camp in 2027.

2. De Vries starts the 2026 season at AA but just as happened with the jump from Lansing to Midland it will only take a short period of continued excellent performance to compel the A’s to push him again up to AAA. Promoted to AAA early in the season, it will only take an injury or performance based reason for the A’s to call De Vries up, at age 19, to debut in the big leagues during the 2026 season.

3. Assuming a strong finish this coming week, having shown that the Midwest League is no match for him De Vries starts the 2026 season at AAA Las Vegas where he is positioned to be an early call up if he mashes there as well — by not starting the season in Sacramento the A’s preserve his service clock time enough that he is still not a free agent until after the 2032 season but like Nick Kurtz, the A’s get most of the season in the big leagues from their young star.

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4. Reality bites. A significant injury (e.g., torn meniscus in knee), or a couple unfortunate injuries (e.g., hit in hand by pitch, pulled hamstring), or a sudden drop in performance as he suddenly struggles, for an extended period, for the first time, put the brakes on this “runaway train” and move De Vries back to a more normal timeline in which he can legally celebrate his big league debut with an alcoholic beverage.

For me, vying for a roster spot out of spring training in 2026 falls under the “implausible scenarios” category, as does the dreaded “he’s actually not good” scenario where he stops performing well and can’t turn it around. Clearly this kid is special and short of injuries it’s hard to see where he doesn’t reach the big leagues at all in the next 3 years. (Whether he becomes a superstar, a star, a very good player, or a disappointingly average or mediocre player, is another matter — no one can predict that from a minor leaguer.)

Which of those 4 scenarios do you think is most likely to play out for Leo De Vries? Or is there a 5th one you favor? History is littered with “can’t misses” who missed, with “sure things” who became “IL frequent flyer miles” members, with players whose big league careers were poorly predicted by their minor league careers.

With De Vries, however, I think it’s pretty fair to say that reaching the big leagues at all is a question of “when” and not “if”. So then the question of the day becomes, “OK…………….when?”