It would require the most dominant two-week stretch in Miami Marlins history and some outside help. FanGraphs estimates that this scenario has a 0.0% likelihood of coming to fruition. But on the heels of Saturday’s walk-off victory and some helpful results around the National League, the glass with just a few drops of champagne in it suddenly looks half full.
You can always count on the New York Mets to opt for chaos over prosperity. They made it nearly halfway through the 2025 campaign with Major League Baseball’s highest winning percentage, but have since imploded, not only plummeting from NL East title contention, but putting the league’s third Wild Card spot in play for the San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals. Entering Sunday, I’m not ready to rule out Miami, either.
The Marlins face a six-game deficit with 13 games left to play.
After Sunday’s series finale against the Detroit Tigers, the Marlins embark on a three-city, nine-game road trip.
The first stop is Colorado. Although the Rockies are definitively the worst team in MLB, they also swept the Marlins earlier this season. Maybe that previous embarrassment will compel Miami to play with a heightened sense of urgency? Position player reinforcements are expected to arrive just in time for that series in the form of Dane Myers, Connor Norby and Graham Pauley.
The Marlins will not have to deal with Jacob deGrom when visiting the Texas Rangers, but it’s an intimidating matchup, nonetheless. The Rangers have won six of their last seven series, posting an MLB-best 16-4 record during that span. The next-best record during the same span belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies (15-7). However, it’s possible that the Phils will have nothing to play for, with a top-two NL record and bye to the NLDS already secured.
The regular season slate concludes with a three-game set at loanDepot park against the aforementioned New York Mess.
The Marlins won their season series against the Giants and Reds, which earned them the tiebreaker over both teams should they finish with identical records. After splitting their season series against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, those tiebreakers will come down to intradivision record—the Marlins are 20-26 vs. the NL East, the D-backs are 23-20 vs. the NL West and the Cards are 22-26 vs. the NL Central. The Marlins-Mets tiebreaker will go to whomever wins the September 26-28 series.
Over the next 15 days, if…
The Mets go 5-8 (or worse)
The Giants go 6-8 (or worse)
The Reds go 7-7 (or worse)
The Diamondbacks go 6-7 (or worse)
The Cardinals go 8-5 (or worse)
The Marlins go 11-2 (and at least 2-1 vs. the Mets)
Then the Marlins would be postseason-bound.