I have to admit, I don’t necessarily read every comment on every article on this site. I try to read the comments on my own posts just to get an idea of how my work is being received. One of the things that took me by surprise was that more than a few people seem to be calling for Joe Espada’s job. It has even become a topic on local sports talk radio. I suppose when that happens you have to take things seriously.
So, when I go through evaluating the job of a manager or head coach I start with a series of questions. The first question is whether the team lived up to expectations. As we sit right now, the Astros postseason chances hang in the balance. It would be easy to say if they continue to play as they have in August and September they won’t make the playoffs. That by itself could be seen as an admission that they have not met expectations. Yet, we should probably look at the preseason prognosticators.
What was the preseason prediction?
Fangraphs: 84-78PECOTA: 87-75Draft Kings: 88-74 (rounded up)Depth Charts: 88-74Aggregate: 87-75
So, if we are looking at the last twelve games as a referendum on the season that would seem to indicate that the Astros are most likely going to reach the pre-season aggregate win total for those four projection systems. This is obviously not an exhaustive list, but we are at a point where we have to acknowledge the state of the roster according to those that analyze these things. Most of those above had the Astros pegged in second or third place in the AL West. Even given the recent struggles, we would have to admit that the Astros have met those expectations.
Obviously, many of us walk around wearing orange colored glasses. We would point out that the national writers almost always underestimate what the Astros will do. So it is fair to say that these may not be particularly relevant to you. Fair enough. So, we immediately move onto the second question. If the Astros did not meet expectations this season then what are the reasons why?
Why did the Astros not meet expectations?
If anyone were to realistically look at the 2025 season the story of their underachievement would have to come down to two factors: injuries and an underperforming offense. 11 different Astros have spent time on the disabled list at some point on the season. That leads the big leagues. That doesn’t even include players that never played for the Astros and opened the season on the injured list. The Astros have used 42 different players this season. That is also on the high end.
In order to put that on Joe Espada you would have to argue that he was somehow responsible for some of those injuries. I might buy someone like Josh Hader. Hader was used for two innings on several occasions this season. One could argue that put extra pressure on his arm and contributed to his injury late in the season. It is hard for me to see how Espada would be responsible for anyone else.
If we are pointing the finger at injuries as the primary cause of the season going sideways then it becomes important to determine who is most culpable in that. After all, if our goal is to avoid another season with crippling injuries then that seems like a relevant question. So, how is that on the manager? In some cases I can see that as a valid excuse. This is particularly true when it is a rash of pitching injuries. Yet, it would seem more prudent to blame the medical staff or general manager.
The offense is a bit harder to parse. The Astros are currently in a tie for 25th in runs scored per game. They are 14th in OPS and 16th in OPS+. Almost every measure that we use to grade offense says this team should be a middle of the road offensive team. When you look at the collection of talent on the diamond, that would seem to indicate the same thing. No one would confuse them with the Yankees, Phillies, or Dodgers. Yet, they should be better than what they are.
The question then becomes what culpability the manager has in that. I am open to arguments on that point. The numbers and the anecdotal evidence all points to the same thing. This team doesn’t hit well with men in scoring position and doesn’t do well situationally. I could see that being partially on the manager, but I would point to the hitting coaches more so. If the Astros somehow fired Espada and kept the hitting coaches that would be a huge mistake.
Is there someone better out there?
I admit that this is a more esoteric discussion than the former. After all, better is in the eye of the beholder. This also might be considered the New York Knicks argument. Sometimes you can scapegoat a guy without having a clear line of succession in mind. So, we should ask this more directly. Is there anyone out there specifically that you think would have done better with this club and the situations they had to deal with? Also, what does that look like? Is that 95 wins? Is that 90 wins? What specifically would they have done differently to get to that point?
In the grand scheme of things, I’m just not seeing it. However, I am a reasonable man and I am open to the possibility of being wrong. More importantly, I am open to the possibility that a different voice could create better results. I’m definitely in favor of a different voice coaching the hitters. Maybe it is better cleaning house and starting over. I will listen to every argument. This is your opportunity to convince me. Why do you think Joe Espada should be fired?