The Mariners escaped that nightmarish homestand with just a single win, though if one or two things broke their way, it could have been a 2-4 or 3-3 homestand. No matter, because now the M’s embark on their longest road trip of the season — 10 games in San Diego, Chicago, and Houston. With the now-official Vedder Cup on the line, Seattle needs to get things in order this weekend.
At a Glance
Mariners
Padres
Mariners
Padres
Game 1
Friday, May 16 | 6:40 pm
RHP Logan Evans
RHP Stephen Kolek
41%
59%
Game 2
Saturday, May 17 | 5:40 pm
RHP Emerson Hancock
RHP Nick Pivetta
38%
62%
Game 3
Sunday, May 18 | 1:10 pm
RHP Bryan Woo
RHP Michael King
45%
55%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
Padres
Mariners
Edge
Overview
Padres
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
109 (6th in NL)
115 (3rd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
-6 (11th)
-8 (14th)
Padres
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
95 (6th)
93 (4th)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
91 (4th)
107 (11th)
Padres
The Padres organization has been embroiled in an ugly ownership battle after the death of Peter Seidler last year. That put a pause on a lot of their offseason activity and quite possibly sabotaged their attempt to sign Roki Sasaki. They were able to make a few key additions in February, signing Nick Pivetta and a handful of non-roster invitees to pad their depth. Make no mistake, this roster is still incredibly top heavy. Superstars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill have done a ton of heavy lifting but there is absolutely no contingency plan if any of them get hurt. So far, everything has gone according to plan; the Friars have been one of the early season surprises, challenging the Dodgers for NL West supremacy through the first month and half of the season.
Padres Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RF
R
180
16.7%
10.6%
0.252
163
Luis Arraez
1B
L
160
1.9%
5.0%
0.116
105
Manny Machado
3B
R
173
15.6%
11.0%
0.150
157
Jackson Merrill
CF
L
73
16.4%
4.1%
0.265
212
Xander Bogaerts
SS
R
169
20.1%
11.8%
0.125
99
Gavin Sheets
DH
L
135
26.7%
6.7%
0.177
129
Jake Cronenworth
2B
L
71
16.9%
19.7%
0.222
169
Jason Heyward
LF
L
85
21.2%
7.1%
0.107
43
Elias DÃaz
C
R
92
19.6%
10.9%
0.148
109
After suffering through some shoulder issues and a 2022 PED suspension, Fernando Tatis Jr. finally looks like he’s put all that early career turbulence behind him and has put all his talent together into a complete package. He’s crushing the ball again, he’s dramatically improved his plate discipline, and has continued to play gold glove caliber defense in right field. Manny Machado is also enjoying his best season since 2022. The power numbers aren’t there yet, but he’s also improved his plate discipline and contact quality this year. Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Arraez have all dealt with some minor injuries early this season but all three are healthy now and have been key contributors to this potent lineup.
Probable Pitchers
Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Stephen Kolek
14 1/3
21.2%
7.7%
0.0%
59.5%
0.00
2.41
Logan Evans
15
16.2%
10.3%
9.5%
30.6%
3.60
4.77
A long-time Mariners farm hand, Stephen Kolek was selected in the Rule 5 draft and spent the entire 2024 season pitching out of San Diego’s bullpen. Seattle invested a ton of development time honing Kolek’s repertoire and the Padres are reaping the benefits. He’s got six pitches though he splits them pretty definitively depending on the handedness of the opposing batter. Right-handers will see a sinker, slider, cutter combo while left-handers have to deal with a four-seamer and changeup. He’s able to generate tons of weak groundball contact without a ton of swing-and-miss in his arsenal. That makes him pretty prone to the whims of batted ball luck.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Nick Pivetta
44 1/3
27.7%
7.9%
7.3%
31.3%
3.05
3.08
Emerson Hancock
28 2/3
17.1%
8.5%
18.8%
44.8%
6.91
5.44
RHP Nick Pivetta
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
51.4%
93.7
95
130
114
0.344
Sinker
2.8%
93.3
Cutter
8.3%
88.7
85
Curveball
17.6%
79.0
91
43
92
0.323
Sweeper
19.4%
82.1
106
129
131
0.191
Pivetta was the big offseason signing for the Padres and filled a key hole in their rotation. He enjoyed a career resurgence with the Red Sox after adding a sweeper to his pitch mix late in 2023. That allowed him to push his strikeout-to-walk ratio into elite territory, though his ERA and FIP sat right around four thanks to a high home run rate that has plagued him throughout his career. He’s managed to avoid those dinger problems this year, but his underlying contact metrics don’t paint a pretty picture, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio has regressed into merely good territory.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Michael King
50 1/3
27.9%
8.0%
8.3%
38.9%
2.32
3.24
Bryan Woo
50 2/3
25.4%
4.1%
6.1%
33.6%
2.84
2.68
RHP Michael King
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
26.1%
93.7
103
144
93
0.440
Sinker
27.3%
92.5
104
123
120
0.232
Changeup
20.8%
86.8
81
93
161
0.253
Slider
6.7
83.8
113
Sweeper
19.1%
82.3
113
107
93
0.282
Michael King’s first year as a full-time member of the starting rotation went swimmingly last year. He only lost about a mile per hour off his fastball in his transition to longer outings and his deep repertoire allowed him to work through lineups multiple times without fear. His repertoire is a pitch shape dream; he’s got a fantastic sinker with outstanding movement on both planes, a changeup that mirrors his sinker perfectly, and two versions of his breaking ball, one with more horizontal break than the other. Those four pitches present a complex east-west conundrum for batters and then he’ll break out a four-seamer that gets plenty of whiffs at the top of the zone. Good luck.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Mariners
23-19
0.548
—
L-L-L-W-L
Rangers
24-21
0.533
0.5
W-W-W-W-W
Astros
22-21
0.512
1.5
W-L-W-W-L
Athletics
22-22
0.500
2.0
W-L-W-L-L
Angels
17-25
0.405
6.0
W-L-W-L-L
After winning the opening game of a four-game set against the Astros, the Rangers have now strung together six straight wins and are just half a game back in the AL West. Houston has crept up the standings as well with back-to-back series wins against the Reds and Royals. Those two Texas teams will continue to battle it out this weekend. The A’s were pummeled by the Dodgers this week and will head back to the Bay Area this weekend to face their regional rival, the Giants.