The end of the regular season is now less than two weeks away, and even though we are still two months away from MLB awards season, we’ve seen enough to predict the major individual award honors, which are presented annually in November, after the conclusion of the World Series.

Below are my predictions for the American League awards. Some of these races are really close in my opinion, like the AL MVP Award where Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners have been neck-and-neck all season. There are also some that aren’t close, like the AL Rookie of the Year race where Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has separated himself from the field.

Tomorrow, I will share my National League predictions. Please let me know in the comment section what you think I got right on the AL side and what you think I whiffed on.

(Stats through Sun., Sept. 14)

Most Valuable PlayerAaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees

Runner-up: Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners

Third place: Bobby Witt, Jr., Kansas City Royals

This MVP race has been as close as it gets all season long, but … All Rise! … I have Judge winning over Raleigh by a gnat’s eyelash. Judge leads the league in runs scored, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases.

Aaron Judge takes home this award by a whisker over Cal Raleigh. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

A seven-time All-Star, Judge has already won two MVPs, including one just last year. He’ll also win his fifth Silver Slugger this fall. Judge has moved past Joe DiMaggio on the Yankees’ all-time home run list, claiming sole possession of fourth place. He’s continued to show his leadership skills as the captain of a team that plays under heavy scrutiny.

I gave serious consideration to Raleigh, who this year broke the record for most home runs in a season from a catcher, and he’s tied Mickey Mantle’s record for most home runs in a season by a switch hitter. He’s leading the AL in home runs and RBIs, and has been very impressive defensively behind the plate.

For third place, I considered left-hander Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers but I’ve always felt that pitchers have their own individual award and the MVP should be for position players. There are a lot of candidates that I weighed for third place, including George Springer of the Toronto Blue Jays, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, José Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians and Riley Greene of the Tigers, but decided to go with Witt due to his all-around game and second-half surge that has him currently edging out Raleigh in bWAR (6.4 to Raleigh’s 6.3).

Cy YoungTarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers

Runner-up: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Boston Red Sox

Third place: Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros

My preseason pick for this award was Crochet, and although he leads the league in strikeouts, there is no doubt that Skubal will win the Cy Young for the second straight season. Skubal tweaked his side in his last start but he isn’t expected to miss much time and, regardless, he’s pretty much clinched the award after going 13-5 with a 2.26 ERA, 224 strikeouts and only 28 walks.

Skubal leads all pitchers in overall Pitching Run Value and Offspeed Run Value, according to Statcast. It’s amazing how many batters swing under his four-seam fastball by inches, and then swing over his changeup by the same measurement on consecutive pitches. Batters have hit .149 against his changeup and .193 against his four-seamer.

Crochet and Brown are neck-and-neck for the second and third spots, but neither was able to overtake Skubal this season. Brown’s 2.27 ERA is second to Skubal’s 2.26 mark, while Crochet (2.63 ERA) has a better K/BB ratio than Brown.

Mariano Rivera Award for AL’s top relieverAroldis Chapman, LHP, Boston Red Sox

Runner-up: Andrés Muñoz, RHP, Seattle Mariners

Third place: Josh Hader, LHP, Houston Astros

(Note: MLB has given out this award for the top AL reliever since 2014. The BBWAA will roll out a Reliever of the Year award as part of its official award set for the 2026 season.)

At age 37, Chapman is finishing up arguably the best season of his 16-year career. For the first time, he has focused on fastball command, and it has been a huge difference-maker. Although he won’t lead the AL in saves, he’s converted 30 with an incredible 1.26 ERA, 82 strikeouts and only 14 walks in 57 1/3 innings. This is the best walk rate of his career. He’s been nearly unhittable, as batters have hit just .161 against his triple-digit four-seam fastball, .097 against his sinker, .167 vs. his slider and .100 against his split-finger. The eight-time All-Star recently signed a one-year extension with the Red Sox.

Muñoz finishes a distant second for me, but he’s had a tremendous year with 35 saves, a 1.57 ERA and 75 strikeouts with 25 walks over 57 1/3 innings. His wipeout slider has been nasty all year and is ranked as the most effective breaking pitch in baseball this season by Statcast.

Hader would have made this race much closer had he not been placed on the injured list on Aug. 12 due to a left shoulder capsule strain. Before the regular-season-ending injury, he appeared in 48 games with a 2.05 ERA, 28 saves and 76 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings.

Rookie of the YearNick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

Runner-up: Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox

Third place: Jack Leiter, RHP, Texas Rangers

Kurtz separated himself as clearly the best rookie hitter in this year’s class. He leads all AL rookies in home runs, RBIs, walks, OPS and runs scored. His overall Batting Run Value puts him in the 97th percentile of all major-league hitters.

Anthony clearly belongs second to Kurtz and has the most upside of any rookie in this class. He was slashing .292/.396/.463 with eight homers in 257 at-bats before being placed on the injured list on Sept. 3 with a left oblique strain that finished his regular season.

Leiter is having a breakout season thanks to significant improvement of his command of his four-seam fastball, which sits in the high-90s, and batters are hitting just .197 against it. His slider has late tilt and movement and his changeup has also been an effective weapon.

Comeback Player of the YearJacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers

Runner-up: Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

Third place: Javier Báez, INF/OF, Detroit Tigers

The Rangers signed deGrom to a five-year, $185 million deal before the 2023 season. He made just six starts that year before undergoing Tommy John surgery and didn’t return until the end of last season, starting three games. No one knew what to expect from him this year since he hadn’t made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019. He’s made a remarkable comeback this season, starting 28 games already with a 2.82 ERA and 171 strikeouts and only 35 walks over 162 2/3 innings.

Buxton has struggled with injuries throughout his 11-year career. Last season was just his second with more than 100 games played (he played in 102). This year, he’s already played in 114 games and has set career highs in home runs, OPS+ and total bases.

Báez has also been a nice comeback story, posting his best slash line since joining the Tigers in 2022 and making his third All-Star team (first since 2019), while turning himself into a plus defender in center. Báez hit .185 last season, and most people felt the Tigers would release him but they stuck with him and it paid off.

Manager of the YearA.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers

Runner-up: John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays

Third place: Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox

There are many elite managers in the AL, including the Rangers’ Bruce Bochy and the Yankees’ Aaron Boone. However, the manager of the year doesn’t usually get awarded to the best manager but rather the manager who overachieved the most with the team he’s been leading. Hinch stands out for the terrific job he did with platooning his position players and mixing-and-matching his bullpen.

Since he began his managerial career, Hinch has always been one of the game’s best communicators and strategists. We all marveled when he took the Astros from 100 losses to a World Series title and now he has taken the Tigers from 100 losses to likely two straight postseason berths and a legitimate shot this year of making noise in October.

Schneider and Cora have done similarly impressive jobs with the teams they’ve skippered as well, with Schneider on track to lead the Blue Jays back to the postseason after a difficult 2024 season and Cora keeping the Red Sox in the thick of the postseason race in the competitive AL East.

(Photo illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos of deGrom, Skubal and Judge: Stacey Revere, Bryan Kennedy, New York Yankees / Getty Images)