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How long has it been since the Detroit Tigers were able to celebrate an American League Central Division crown?
When catcher Alex Avila squeezed his mitt around the final out of a 3-0 win over the Minnesota Twins on the afternoon of Sunday, Sept. 28, 2014, it clinched the Tigers’ fourth AL Central championship in four seasons (with the 2014 title coming by a mere game over the Kansas City Royals), an event heralded by the Freep headlines, “FOUR-PEAT!” and “Bring on the Orioles.”
Since then?
Well, the O’s were, indeed, brought; they broomed the Tigers out of the postseason in three games, sending the franchise cratering toward a decade-long rebuild that finally ended with last season’s wild-card berth.
Just two players who appeared in that clincher against Minnesota – Twins starter Kyle Gibson and Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos – played in the majors as recently as this season. (Though, yes, the Tigers had two pitchers in the dugout – Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander – who are still going.) Another participant, Twins star Joe Mauer, is already in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Another, Tigers star Miguel Cabrera, racked up another 988 hits and 121 homers en route to the milestones of 3,000 hits and 500 homers. Yet another, Tigers utility player Don Kelly, is on his second career as an MLB manager.
In the 10 seasons between that one and this one, 21 of MLB’s 30 teams have won division titles, including every team in the AL Central, save the Tigers. Manager A.J. Hinch has three division titles of his own, and he hadn’t even taken over the Houston Astros the last time the Tigers won one.
Hollywood put out an entire Star Wars trilogy (not to mention half a dozen stand-alone TV series) in less time than it is taking the Tigers to win another division title. Likewise, Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy” – the first one – was a top-10 movie the week the Tigers won the division in 2014. Since then? 27 – TWENTY-SEVEN – more Marvel movies have been released (including two more GOTG’s).
The top two songs on the Billboard Hot 100 the week the Tigers clinched were sung by Meghan Trainor (“All About That Bass”) and Taylor Swift (“Shake It Off”); these days, Trainor is serenading a Kansas City Chiefs quarterback in a State Farm commercial while Swift is marrying that QB’s favorite target.
It has been a lonnnnng time, is what we’re saying.
And now, after just over 4,000 days – it’ll be 4,008 by Thursday, the soonest they can wrap this thing up – the Tigers will be able to pop champagne as Central champs … at some point.
But will they do it at home?
Hello, and welcome back to The Purr-fect Game Newletter, brought to you this week by the number, well, “7.”
Sure, you could argue we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The Tigers lead the Cleveland Guardians – who have five Central crowns since the Tigers last won one – by 6½ games with 12 to play for the Tigers and 13 to play for the Guardians. That gives the Tigers a magic number – the total of Tigers wins and Guardians losses combined needed to make it official – of seven.
And now, here we are, with the Guardians arriving at Comerica Park for a three-game series beginning Tuesday, Sept. 16. A Tigers sweep would stretch the Central lead to 9½ games with nine to play (and 10 for Cleveland) – that, combined with the three victories guaranteeing the Tigers the season series win with the Guardians, means they could grab a 2025 playoff berth as early as Thurday, Sept. 18, in a game that left-hander Tarik Skubal is expected to start.
Of course, they might not sweep the Guardians; the Tigers have three more home games after that, against the Atlanta Braves. And if they don’t get it done then?
It may not be easy for the Tigers; their remaining schedule’s combined win percentage of .509 ranks 10th-toughest in the majors.
Let’s just check out the rest of the Tigers’ schedule, as well as the key series for the rest of the potential AL playoff field, to try and figure out not just if – when – the Tigers will clinch, but whether they can lock in a first-round bye for the postseason.
(We’re going to skip the wild-card-leading Yankees, who have MLB’s easiest remaining schedule with games against the cellar-dwelling Orioles, Twins and Chicago White Sox – we’ll just give them nine more wins and avoid looking too closely at how they got them.)
All records and stats through the games of Sunday, Sept. 14.
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Sept. 16-18: Cleveland Guardians (78-71)
The buzz: The Guardians have MLB’s fourth-best winning percentage since the All-Star break (.593, off a 32-22 record) despite the second-worst OPS (.675) over that span. The Tigers, meanwhile, have posted a .491 winning percentage (26-27) – tied for 15th with the Pirates – while putting up a .718 OPS that ranks 17th. So, uh, don’t take the over in any of these games, especially with the Tigers running basically their playoff rotation (albeit out of order) – Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and, left side permitting, Skubal – out to the Comerica Park mound.
The key player: This series could come down to whether the Guardians’ best hitter in the second half ends his struggles vs. one of his favorite teams as a kid – 25-year-old Kyle Manzardo was raised as a Tigers fan in Idaho but has slashed .133/188/.167 in 10 games against them. Compare that to his .269/.363/.506 line since the break (fueled by eight homers this month) and, well, something’s gotta give.
The pick: Tigers, 2-1, dropping their AL Central magic number to 3.
The other key series: Blue Jays (87-62) vs. Rays – Toronto splits the four-game series to keep a two-game lead for the AL’s top seed; Red Sox (82-68) vs. Athletics – Boston repeats last week’s series win, 2-1; Mariners (82-68) vs. Royals (75-75) – Seattle’s win streak reaches 10 with a win Tuesday, ends Wednesday, and the Royals are eliminated in the division with a loss Thursday; Houston Astros (81-69) vs. Rangers (79-71) – The Rangers narrow their wild-card deficit (yes, really) to a game by taking two of three.
Sept. 19-21: Atlanta Braves (66-83)
The buzz: The Braves entered this season with seven straight playoff berths (including a World Series win in 2021) and three position players with top-five NL MVP finishes in just the past two seasons (Ronald Acuña Jr. won it in 2023, with Matt Olson finishing fourth that year, and Marcell Ozuna finished fourth last season). They’re also playing out the string with former Tigers lefty Joey Wentz getting a start every five days and have posted MLB’s third-worst ERA (5.50, ahead of only the Minnesota Twins, at 5.60, and the Colorado Rockies at 6.82!) since the All-Star break. These two things may be related.
The key player: Which Spencer Strider shows up at Comerica Park this weekend (likely in Sunday’s home finale)? The right-hander led the NL in strikeouts in 2023 en route to a fourth-place Cy Young finish, then missed almost all of 2024 with non-Tommy John elbow surgery, and significant time in 2025 with a hamstring strain. This season, he has a 6.11 ERA in the second half … despite allowing just six earned runs over his past 18 innings (in three starts).
The pick: Braves, 2-1, dropping the AL Central magic number only to 2, but …
The other key series: Guardians at Twins – Cleveland takes the first two games of its four-game series in Minneapolis, but drops the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader and Sunday’s series finale to give the Tigers the AL Central crown about an hour after they wrap things up at Comerica Park; Blue Jays at Royals – Toronto takes two of three in K.C. to stretch its lead in the AL to three games over the Tigers; Red Sox at Rays – Boston continues its dominance of all things Yankees-related by taking two of three at the Yanks’ spring training site; Mariners at Astros – Michigander Hunter Brown gets the win for the ’Stros in the series opener, but the M’s take the final two to stretch their AL West lead to three games with six to play. Rangers vs. Marlins – Texas drops two of three to the Fish, because that’s apparently what potential playoff teams do in September.
Sept. 23-25: at Cleveland Guardians (78-71)
The buzz: How have the Guardians won so many games since the All-Star break despite a nearly non-existent offense? Credit a 3.60 ERA, best in the AL over that span, for that. Cleveland’s pitching has been even better over its past 12 games – correlating to, if not necessarity caused by, adopting a six-man rotation on Sept. 3 – with a 1.60 ERA in 107 innings.
The key player: Right-hander Gavin Williams has been a key component of the Guardians’ second-half run, with a 2.28 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 59⅓ innings since the break. Then again, that has come with 22 walks – ninth-most in the AL over that span (and nine behind AL second-half leader Charlie Morton) – en route to an MLB-high 79 free passes on the season. Of course, Williams outdueled Skubal with six innings of one-hit ball in early July, and has a career 1.98 ERA against the Tigers in five starts.
The pick: Tigers, 2-1, with Williams keeping the Tigers from a needed sweep in the race for the AL’s top seed.
The other key series: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox – Toronto takes two of three to lock up the 1-seed (thanks to their 4-3 edge in the season series with the Tigers); Mariners vs. Rockies – hahahahahahahaha, er, M’s in a sweep; Astros at Athletics – Houston takes two of three in chilly (by Texas standards) West Sacramento; Rangers vs. Twins – Minnesota, owner of MLB’s worst record in the second half (18-35), avoids the sweep. How? Magnets, or something, we guess.
The buzz: The Red Sox hit the final series well back of the Yankees for the top wild-card spot (and homefield in the first round) but just a game ahead of the Astros. The Tigers, meanwhile, arrive at Fenway Park a game ahead of the M’s for the second first-round bye.
The key player: Looking at either facing the Yankees – who the Sox took the season series from, 9-4 – in a best-of-three series on the road, or the Mariners – who split their series with the Sox – Boston goes all-in and starts Garrett Crochet (16-5, 2.63 ERA, 240 Ks) in the opener against the Tigers, and he locks up the MLB strikeout title (though probably not the AL Cy Young Award).
The pick: Red Sox, 2-1, to leave the Tigers at 91 wins – but still a game up on the Mariners.
The other key series: Blue Jays vs. Rays – Toronto only takes one at home, but it’s enough to take the 1-seed by three games and the AL East by two; Mariners vs. Dodgers – Seattle, having locked up their first AL West crown since 2001, muster just one win over LA; Astros at Angels – Houston takes the first two in Anaheim, but can’t catch the Red Sox with a loss in their finale; Rangers at Guardians – Cleveland closes with two of three in the Buddy Bell Bowl.
Celebrate 125 epic seasons of the the Tigers with our new book!
The final 2025 AL standings1. Blue Jays (94-68)2. Tigers (91-71)3. Mariners (90-72)4. Yankees (92-70)5. Red Sox (88-74)6. Astros (87-75)7. Rangers (85-77)8. Guardians (84-78)
And the AL playoffs? The Jays and Tigers get first-round byes, with Toronto facing the wild-card series winner between New York and Boston, and the Tigers hosting the winner of Seattle and Houston in a best-of-five series beginning Oct. 4.
Of course, that’s how our highly scientific analysis sees it. But what do the algorithms say?
Odds and evens
Not to get too cocky, but in the AL Central, at least, it appears all over but for the champagne showers – our three major projection sites put the Tigers’ odds of winning their first division title since 2014 at 98.3%, 99.3% and 98.5%.
Baseball Reference: It’s a 2-seed for the Tigers here, with 91 wins (that seems familiar), three games back of the Jays, though Bbref only likes the Yankees to finish with seven wins in their final 13, instead of our nine. Beyond that, yep: Jays, Tigers, M’s, Yanks, BoSox and Astros, with Jays getting a 26.1% chance of winning the pennant and an 11.1% chance of winning the World Series, followed by the Tigers at 15.9% and 4.8%, respectively. (Those are down from 18.6% and 6.8% last week.)
Baseball Prospectus: A 2-seed, 91 wins and an 88.6% chance of making the ALDS (though BP won’t suggest whether it’s through a series win or a bye). Likewise, BP likes the Tigers’ championship odds a bit better than Bbref, at 12.5% (down from 13.6% last week), though that’s behind the Jays at 13.3%.
FanGraphs: No, really: Jays No. 1, Tigers No. 2 … with the Tigers facing, yep, the winner of the ’Stros/M’s wild-card series (played in Seattle). FanGraphs also gives the Tigers a 77.3% chance of grabbing one of the first-round byes, and a 7.1% chance of winning it all – down from 8.8% last week and behind the Jays (11.5%), Yanks (11.1%) and Mariners (10.6%). (The Dodgers, at 15.7% still top the National League.)
Tigers birthdays this week: Matt Vierling (29 on Sept. 16), Robbie Grossman (36 on Sept. 16), Mickey Tettleton (65 on Sept. 16), Dillon Dingler (27 on Sept. 17), Spencer Turnbull (33 on Sept. 18), Cecil Fielder (62 on Sept. 21) and Aurelio López (would have been 77 on Sept. 21; died in 1992).
Closing time
Of course, once the Tigers DO clinch their fifth AL Central title (and eighth division title overall), it’ll be time to figure out their path to a World Series title – as well when they’ll win another Central crown.
Hopefully, neither one will take another 4,000 days.
Ryan Ford is deputy sports editor for the Free Press; he started with Freep Sports 3,184 days before the Tigers won that 2014 division title. Contact him at rford@freepress.com or follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford and on BlueSky at @theford.bsky.social.