PITTSBURGH — The Cubs entered Tuesday with a magic number of two, but they knew they could not clinch a playoff berth by the end of the night.
Blame the wonky scheduling going on in the National League.
Regardless of what was going on around the rest of the league, the Cubs also knew what the simplest path into October was: Win Tuesday and again on Wednesday and they’d be in the playoffs for the first time since 2020 – and produce a much-anticipated champagne celebration.
Step one is complete.
They beat the Pirates 4-1 on Tuesday night at PNC Park to put the champagne bottles on ice. The Cubs (87-64) hold a 5-game lead on the San Diego Padres for the top spot in the NL Wild Card. The Padres opened a three-game set against the New York Mets – the last team in the playoff field – on Tuesday night with a loss. The Cubs’ magic number to seal that top spot is seven after Tuesday’s action.
The Cubs cruised to victory over the Pirates (65-87), as a much-anticipated pitching duel between rookie Cade Horton and Pittsburgh’s phenom Paul Skenes resulted in a relatively high-scoring first inning – both teams combined to score three runs. The Cubs won’t care, though, since they picked up the much-desired win.
Here are three takeaways from the win:
Pouncing on Paul, again
Skenes has been absolutely unreal this season and, well, really his whole career.
The former No. 1 overall pick had a 1.94 ERA in 53 career starts entering Tuesday and was looking at the appearance as a send-off to the PNC Park faithful, since he’s the presumptive favorite for the NL Cy Young Award.
The Cubs, though, played the part of spoiler.
They jumped on Skenes early and continued their – relatively speaking – dominance of the phenom. The Cubs lineup scored three times in the first two innings and collected seven hits, chasing him after 3.2 innings on Tuesday. The seven hits were tied for the most he’s allowed in an outing, and it was the second-shortest start of his career.
The Cubs own a .737 OPS against Skenes, the best mark for any team that has faced him more than once. Skenes’ 2.94 ERA against the Cubs is the third-highest mark against an opponent he’s faced more than once. He has squared off against the Cubs seven times, the most of any opponent.
Skenes is still really good against the Cubs, but relatively speaking, they do pretty well versus arguably the game’s best pitcher.
Horton bounces back, continues to make Game 1 case
As exciting as the Cubs’ hot start against Skenes looked, the opening frame by the Pirates against Horton was as worrisome.
Jared Triolo coaxed an 11-pitch at-bat to start the frame that ultimately resulted in a strikeout. Then the Pirates got a run back when Spencer Horwitz singled and scored on an Oneil Cruz triple. It sure felt like Horton’s dominant post-All-Star-Game run was hitting a wall.
But Horton showed the moxie he’s displayed time and time again. He retired Nick Gonzales to escape the jam, then permitted just two base runners across the next 4.1 innings – a single and a walk in the third – in another strong performance for the Cubs.
He’s been so good since the Midsummer Classic that it’s fair to wonder if the 24-year-ol rookie is the Cubs’ Game 1 starter in a potential NL Wild Card series. He’s been that good that it’s easy to envision him in that role, giving the Cubs a chance in the opening game of the playoffs.
If and when the Cubs secure a playoff berth, they will probably use Monday’s off day – the last of the season – to manipulate their staff a bit. They might try to build in some extra rest for Horton and Shota Imanaga as they line up the duo for October.
And in doing so, we might have a clearer picture of who’s taking the ball in that first game.
Busch’s blasts
You can categorize Michael Busch as “red-hot”.
The Cubs first baseman hit his second home run in as many days – a solo shot in the first off Skenes – and has been on a tear over his last eight games. In that span, he’s slashing .313/.353/.688 (1.040 OPS) with three home runs, three doubles and four RBI. Tuesday, he reached base in four of his five plate appearances.
That’s a big boost to the Cubs offense. Busch had been in a rut in the second half, like much of the top of the Cubs lineup.
Before this hot streak, Busch was hitting .191 with a .623 OPS since the All-Star Break. That’s a drop of nearly 100 points in the batting average department (.290) and over 300 points in his OPS (.925) from the first half.
This recent surge is big given the question marks surrounding some of the key members of the Cubs offense at the moment.
Kyle Tucker remains on the injured list and is still not running. It seems unlikely he returns before the end of the seven-game road trip. Seiya Suzuki was out of the lineup for the fifth straight day as he recovers from an illness. He was running at PNC Park on Monday and hit on the field on Tuesday. Those were two key offensive cogs in the first half when the lineup was rolling.
During that early season span, it was four guys essentially carrying the offense – Busch, Tucker, Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong. That quartet has collectively hit a slump in the second half, but having Busch regain his groove is a welcome sign for Craig Counsell and the Cubs.