Dan Johnson breaks down his top player prop bets for Wednesday night’s AL West showdown between the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers and Astros collide in a game with massive playoff implications—Houston trails Seattle by only half a game in the AL West while still holding a lead over Texas and Cleveland for the final Wild Card slot. Texas, meanwhile, sits just 3.5 games behind Houston in the Wild Card chase, meaning a win here shifts tiebreaker leverage and postseason positioning in a big way. The Astros are reeling slightly with Yordan Álvarez out indefinitely due to a left ankle sprain, which takes away a key power source. Houston’s recent run (four wins in their last five) has kept them from slipping, but every loss magnifies danger; for Texas, a win would close the gap and force Houston into more uncomfortable paths. Neither team can afford to let tonight slide—this is late-season baseball’s unforgiving edge, and this matchup sets the stage for October-like intensity. And with stars on both sides in form, the prop market is thriving because every pitch and plate appearance carries playoff-level leverage. Here are my favorite player props for this AL West showdown between the Astros and the Rangers on Wednesday.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Jacob deGrom 8+ strikeouts (+275)

Ladder climb!

At +275, this is mispriced ceiling. deGrom’s 2025 baseline already supports a high-K script: 2.82 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 171 K in 162.2 IP with a strikeout rate hovering 26–27%. The recent form bump is intact—last four starts (22.1 IP) at a 3.22 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 26.4% K, and ~29.1% CSW, driven by ~64–66% first-pitch strikes that let him live in leverage counts. He’s cleared 6+ Ks in 12 of his last 16 and already piled 16 strikeouts in 11.1 IP vs. Houston across two meetings this season. The pitch model snapshot (Stuff+ 110 / Location+ 105 / Pitching+ 119) matches the visuals: ride at the letters, slider depth below bats, and enough speed separation to freeze righties.

The matchup cooperates. Houston’s chase profile has sat bottom-five much of the year and, without Yordan Álvarez (ankle), their swing-threat density and extra-base hit rate dip—conditions that typically lengthen two-strike plate appearances and create more put-away chances (protect swings vs. the slider/four-seam up). Park context helps, too: Daikin Park trims overall scoring, reducing “quick hook” risk and letting Bruce Bochy keep deGrom on script if the pitch count cooperates.

Projection-wise, eight punchouts is a fair median: think 95–105 pitches, 24–26 batters faced, 30%+ combined whiff/CSW band, and multiple two-strike sliders to finish. The main risk is Altuve/Bregman spoiling deep counts and a conservative pull if Texas builds a big lead early, but the price absorbs that variance. +275 implies ~26.7% break-even, and I rate deGrom’s Over 7.5 far higher given form, opponent context, and venue. I’m grading it live to 8–9 K with ladder equity to 9+ if those early 0-0, 1-1 wins show up.

Adolis Garcia to record an RBI (+190)

At +190, this prop catches value because it centers García’s run-production skill without forcing you into the all-or-nothing HR ladder. Since returning from his quad issue, García has put together a line of 18 HR, 73 RBI across ~125 games, still flashing the core batted-ball metrics that make him Texas’s most reliable RBI bat: 92–94 mph average exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate, and 12% barrel rate. Even when the average floats, he’s built for damage in leverage.

The matchup works. Cristian Javier (1–3, 4.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) remains fly-ball heavy with a four-seam that lives up in the zone and a tendency to lose command when behind. That’s the exact profile García hunts—he’s historically dangerous on high heaters and sliders that hang, which translates not only into HR potential but also sac flies and pulled liners with runners on base. Javier’s season WHIP and walk rate suggest traffic is coming; García’s RBI/PA rate is typically team-best because he combines 40–42% pull rate with consistent peak exit velocity when he connects.

The table in front of him matters. Wyatt Langford and Joc Pederson are providing OBP and power in the two/three slots, which should give Adolis 2–3 RISP opportunities tonight. Even if the HR variance doesn’t hit, a single ball hit 100+ mph at 20–25° launch angle into the expansive alleys of Daikin Park easily clears the RBI bar. That geometry favors gap doubles and sac fly production as much as fence-clearing shots.

Jose Altuve 2+ total bases (+130)

At +130, this is the cleanest Houston hitter angle on the board because it leverages Altuve’s volume and his current batted-ball shape without needing a perfect swing. September form has included multi-XBH nights and that three-homer outburst, and he’s tracking a .760–.780 OPS with 25 HR on the season while flashing upper-percentile hard-hit rates the past couple weeks. The path against deGrom is specific but repeatable: authoritative contact on elevated four-seams (Altuve’s best barrel window historically) and pull-side damage on sliders that catch too much plate. Even in a high-K matchup, Altuve’s swing decisions and bat-to-ball keep the ball in play: 17–19% K rate with 77–78% contact%, which is exactly how you build total-bases volume when the pitcher can also miss bats.

Role and context help. Batting leadoff gives him 4–5 plate appearances, creating multiple cracks at 2+ total bases via one swing (gapper or down-the-line double), or the piecemeal route (single + steal/advancement). Daikin Park’s 315’ left field line and forgiving angles for liners mean you don’t need perfect carry to find two bases. And with Yordan Álvarez out, opposing gameplans can’t always soft-avoid Altuve early—Texas would rather not spot free runners ahead of the middle of the order—so he should see some early-count heaters in his nitro lanes.

Bottom line: this isn’t HR-dependent; one well-struck liner or a single plus a second event gets you there, and Altuve’s recent contact quality plus leadoff volume makes that a live outcome.