Should Detroit Tigers worry about Cleveland Guardians in AL Central?
On “Days of Roar,” Cleveland Guardians beat writer Paul Hoynes checks in about the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central race with two weeks remaining.
Is it time to panic?
The Detroit Tigers are stumbling to the finish line, putting the American League Central in jeopardy with nine games remaining. They’re still on track for the postseason — and even the AL Central crown — but nothing is guaranteed after being swept by the Cleveland Guardians in three games at Comerica Park.
For that, the Tigers have no one to blame but themselves.
“We got our ass kicked in pretty much every aspect, and they swept us,” manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday, Sept. 18, after a 3-1 loss decided by superstar José RamÃrez‘s home run off rookie right-handed reliever Troy Melton in the seventh inning. “They’re going to get another shot at us, or we’re going to get another shot at them, whichever way you want to look at it.”
In the AL Central, the Tigers (85-68) have a 3½-game lead over the Guardians (with a magic number of seven to clinsh the division), with three of their final nine games against the Guardians from Sept. 23-25 in Cleveland. The Guardians hold a 6-4 advantage in the 13-game season series, which is the tiebreaker if the teams finish with the same record.
The Tigers have lost 15 of 22 games; the Guardians have won 12 of 13.
Simply put, the Tigers can’t afford to keep losing.
In Thursday’s loss, left-hander Tarik Skubal — the favorite to repeat as the AL Cy Young Award winner — couldn’t save the Tigers, even though he limited the Guardians to one run over six innings.
“We just got to move on,” said Skubal, who owns a 2.23 ERA in 30 starts. “We got to move on and start playing a better brand of baseball. We can’t take anything back that’s already happened. We can’t go back in time. Just focus on tomorrow and try to win a ballgame.”
Both Hinch and Riley Greene insisted during the first two losses of the series that the Tigers don’t feel pressure, projecting confidence that a collapse isn’t coming. After the third loss, there was a sense of urgency in the clubhouse.
Finally, the Tigers are facing the reality of their situation.
“At some point, we’re going to run out of games,” left-handed reliever Tyler Holton said after tossing 1â…“ scoreless innings in Thursday’s loss. “It’s time to buckle up and strap in — because we’re in the middle of a fight.”
The Tigers head into their next series, a three-game visit from the Atlanta Braves beginning Friday, with a 91.4% chance to win the AL Central, according to FanGraphs — down from 98.5% before the sweep. The Tigers also have a 96.7% chance to make the playoffs — down from 99.5% before the sweep.
More notably, the Tigers’ odds to clinch a bye to the best-of-five ALDS (as one of the top two AL division winners) are just 43.2% — down from 75.9% before the sweep. Without a bye, the Tigers would be forced into a best-of-three wild-card series.
The postseason remains the most likely outcome.
But the Tigers are falling apart.
“We’re just not winning,” Skubal said. “Winning cures everything. It really does. We’re just not winning, and that’s just part of the game. We need to play better baseball — hitting, pitching, defense, all that stuff probably needs to be a little bit better.”
It has led to six losses in seven games.
“These are tough times when you go through these stretches at the wrong time of the year,” Hinch said, “but it’s going to take the games to figure them out.”
[ MUST LISTEN: Make “Days of Roar” your go-to Tigers podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify) ]
The Tigers haven’t played like a winning team in a long time, going 47-48 since May 31, 26-34 since July 9 and just 7-15 since Aug. 24.
What happened to the winning ways?
“We’re atop the division, no?” Skubal said. “This season, we got off to a really great start, and we’re atop the division, so until that changes, I don’t really know.”
It’s fair to panic about the postseason bye, and there are many reasons to be concerned about how the Tigers will perform in October, but it’s still too early to panic about the AL Central race — because they remain overwhelming favorites.
Everything could change in the next three days.
For example, if the Tigers lose two of three games against the red-hot Atlanta Braves, and if the Guardians win three of four against the terrible Minnesota Twins, then the Tigers’ AL Central lead will be just two games entering Tuesday’s opener of another three-game series against the Guardians.
If that happens, it’s time to hit the panic button in every scenario.
“I know I’ve repeated myself over and over on how you got to play the game that’s in front of you, and this is why,” Hinch said. “We can’t just magically go back in time and do different things or play different games or go revisit series. Everything has mattered up to this point, and everything will matter moving forward.”
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
Listen to our weekly Tigers show “Days of Roar” every Monday afternoon on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Next up: Braves
Matchup:Â Tigers (85-68) vs. Atlanta (70-83), series opener.
First pitch:Â 6:40 p.m. Friday, Sept. 19; Comerica Park, Detroit.
TV/radio:Â FanDuel Sports Network Detroit; WXYT-FM (97.1), WDTW-AM (1310; Spanish only).
Probable pitchers: Tigers – RHP Charlie Morton (9-10, 5.56 ERA); Braves – RHP Bryce Elder (7-10, 5.56).