The Texas Rangers have fought back every time the door seemed to shut on their playoff hopes, but now face their stiffest test.
After a three-game sweep by the Houston Astros, the Rangers (79-74) are 4.5 games back of the final American League wild-card spot and five games behind the Astros for the AL West lead heading into Thursday, with only nine games to play.
According to FanGraphs, the Rangers have a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs ahead of their final homestand of the season against two non-playoff teams in the Miami Marlins and the Minnesota Twins. The first game against Miami is at 7:05 p.m. Friday.
The Rangers, who have lost four in a row, will end the regular season with a three-game series at the Cleveland Guardians (80-71), who are 2.5 games back of the final AL wild card.
The Astros (84-69) completed the sweep of Texas with a 5-2 home victory Wednesday, scoring all five runs in five innings against Rangers starter Jacob deGrom.
The Rangers’ chances of making the playoffs by winning their division have dwindled significantly after the sweep.
The Astros have a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners (83-69), and the teams face off in a critical three-game series starting Friday in Houston.
The Mariners have surged by winning nine out of their last 10 games, and AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh has been scorching, hitting .305 with six home runs and 11 RBIs for an offense that has scored more runs than any other in baseball over the past 15 days.
The Rangers don’t hold the tiebreaker over either team and would need a massive collapse from both to get back in the division hunt.
AL wild-card chase
The Rangers have four teams above them in the wild-card race — the New York Yankees (85-67), Boston Red Sox (83-69), Mariners and Guardians — and they have to pass two of them. The Rangers trail the Yankees by 6.5 games, the Red Sox and Mariners by 4.5 and the Guardians by two.
Of those teams, the Rangers hold the tiebreaker over the Red Sox and Guardians.
Final homestand opponents
The Rangers will host the Marlins (72-80) and the Twins (66-86), a welcome sight at a critical juncture for a Rangers team that has struggled on the road (32-46) and against winning teams (38-53).
The Rangers and Marlins will play for the first time this season, and right-hander Tyler Mahle (6-3, 2.34 ERA) will take the mound for Texas on Friday in the most critical game of the season to date.
The Rangers’ margin for error is paper-thin, and the team will need its best run of the season if it wants to play postseason baseball.