Stan Son takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s game between the Yankees and Orioles.
This is the third contest of a four-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting New York Yankees.
Carlos Rodon is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Tomoyuki Sugano is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore.
Yankees at Orioles prediction, preview
Carlos Rodón has seen his strikeout rate dip from last year, while the walk rate has gone up. However, the HR/9 has decreased, and the ERA sits at 3.11. The FIP is higher at 3.86, as the BABIP is only .226, but that’s still a far cry from the 4.39 and 5.79 FIPs he posted over the past two seasons. The swinging strike rate is 12.1%, and the chase rate is 28.7%, marking the first time it’s been below 30% since 2020.
Sixteen of the 21 home runs he’s allowed have come off the bats of righties. Twelve of the 21 home runs have been served up at home. His K-BB% is 6.7% higher against lefties, and the FIP is 0.4 lower. Most of his numbers are similar at home and on the road, with the home run discrepancy causing the FIP to be higher at home.
In 31 starts, Rodón has allowed more than three earned runs seven times, though three of those came in the first four games of the season. He’s gone at least six innings 19 times, including four of his most recent outings. He faced Baltimore way back in April on the road, going six innings, walking one, and striking out seven while allowing two earned runs on two hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Orioles rank fourth in strikeout rate, 21st in ISO, and 21st in wOBA.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a 4.39 ERA with a 5.08 FIP. The strikeout rate is just 15.6%, but the walk rate is only 5.5%. He’s allowed a robust 28 home runs in 149.2 innings. The barrel rate is 11.4%, and the swinging strike rate is only 7.9%.
Nineteen of the 28 home runs have come off the bats of righties. Seventeen of the 28 have been allowed at home. His numbers are slightly better against righties, but the home run discrepancy causes the FIP to be 1.65 points higher. The same holds true with his home/road splits.
In 28 starts, Sugano has allowed more than three earned runs five times and has gone at least six innings in 12 of them. He has faced New York twice this season. The first meeting was at home in April, when he went five innings, walked one, and struck out eight without allowing an earned run on five hits. In June, on the road, he lasted only 3.2 innings, walked three, and struck out four while allowing three earned runs on seven hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the best ISO, and rank first in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, New York ranks 18th in FIP, while Baltimore ranks 16th.
Yankees at Orioles pick, best bet
I have confidence in Rodón against an Orioles team that has struggled against left-handed pitching. I feel the exact opposite about Sugano, facing a Yankees team that crushes pitching.