The Mariners and Astros began the season projected to tie, and wouldn’t you know it, they’re tied entering their final head-to-head series. It begins Friday in Houston at 5 p.m. PDT. Whoever wins the three-game set will not only move ahead in the standings but hold the tie breaker in the event they, you know, tie. It’s round zero of the 2025 playoffs, as Jake Mailhot noted in our series preview.

They got here in different ways. The Astros tip toed around .500 in the spring before rattling off a long stretch of one-run wins in early summer — getting out to a seven game lead despite playing just OK. They couldn’t sustain an all-pitching-no-hitting makeup, nor could they keep up with mounting injuries (leaving nearly 18 fWAR on the injured list); they’ve played a game below .500 since the All-Star break. The Astros enter the series held together by loose bandages and the knowhow of a club that’s won the AL West in the last seven non-COVID seasons.

The Mariners have gotten here through wild inconsistency. When they’ve played well, they’ve played better than anyone. When they haven’t played well, well….

The mix has been good enough to earn them all sorts of “the Mariners have not been in this position since 2001” factlets. It’s undoubtedly their best shot at the division in decades, and having won 11 of 12, this feels like the year. But the Mariners remain unknowable in short spurts, which is highly relevant with their season narrowed to three nights in Houston.

Bryan Woo gets the start for the Mariners in game one. Woo has faced the Astros twice this year, going six innings in each start with a 4.50 ERA and 3.98 FIP. Both outings were among Woo’s “worst” performances of the year — and the Mariners lost both games — but only because he’s set the bar quite high. With a strong performance Friday, Woo could push his way into the top 20 starting pitcher seasons for the Mariners this century and maintain his standing in the top five for strikeout rate. He’ll approach the Astros’ lineup with the same fastball-heavy usage that’s frustrated opponents all season, as Jordan Shusterman outlined for Yahoo on Thursday.

Hunter Brown goes for the Astros. As good as Woo has been in 2025, Brown has been a tick better and will likely finish in the top three for AL Cy Young. He’s faced the Mariners twice this season (once against Woo) with a 2.70 ERA and 2.05 FIP. He pretty thoroughly shut down the Mariners in April but only got through four innings in the series following the All-Star break; the Astros would eventually win that game after Woo and the bullpen struggled to hold a lead.

Isaac Paredes returns to the Astros lineup for the first time since July 19 when he suffered a right hamstring strain while running the bases in Seattle. Paredes has been taking at bats, running the bases and fielding grounders in Florida, according to MLB.com, but he has not participated in a typical minor league rehab assignment.

Not in the Astros lineup is Yordan Alvarez, who was placed on the injured list with a “severe” right ankle sprain after twisting his ankle on home plate in the series against the Rangers; Astros manager Joe Espada said Alvarez will be out “a while.”

Game time: 5:10 p.m. PDT
TV: ROOT Sports with Aaron Goldsmith, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jay Buhner and Brad Adam
Radio: Seattle Sports (710 AM) with Rick Rizzs and Gary Hill Jr.