ARLINGTON — So, uh, that wasn’t ideal.
The Texas Rangers, in a must-win week, “fell apart” in the words of second-year outfielder Wyatt Langford. That’s quite possible the most succinct way to describe it.
The Rangers have lost seven consecutive games, been swept by the Houston Astros and the Miami Marlins, were disqualified from the American League West race and are an inch away from outright elimination.
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They trail the Boston Red Sox by six games for the second Wild Card berth and trail both the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians by five games for the third Wild Card berth. There are six games left to play.
Let’s dive into what that means.
Here are five things we learned last week.
The playoffs odds are, uh, well, you’ll see
Zero.
They are zero.
According to FanGraphs, at least, though this does not mean that the Rangers are mathematically eliminated. It’s a projection model, after all, and the projections suggest an exceptionally arduous challenge ahead of them.
The Rangers are eliminated if they lose any of their next six games or if both the Red Sox and Astros win any game. They have of course won six consecutive games this season, which reflects the possibility that they can handle their business, but it takes two (or, in this case, three) to tango.
The possibilities are limited
So, yeah, there’s a chance.
Theoretically.
Everything needs to go right for the Rangers, though, and everything needs to go wrong for their competitors. Like, drastically right, and drastically wrong.
Step one: It’s all about 85 for the local baseball. Wins, that is. The Rangers need to win each of their final six games — and finish with an 85-77 record — to have a slight chance to qualify for the playoffs. Step two: At least two of the Red Sox, Astros and Guardians need to lose out for the Rangers to leapfrog their way into the third Wild Card spot. If the Red Sox lose out, they are 85-77 and would be on the wrong end of a tiebreaker with the Rangers. If the Astros lose out, they are 84-78 and can’t use their tiebreak over Texas to their advantage. The Guardians technically do not need to lose out, but, they would sink below the Rangers so long as they win one or zero games in their final six.
The Rangers are eliminated in any scenario that involves a three-way tie for the third Wild Card spot. That split is decided by a team’s record against their own division. Both the Red Sox and Guardians posted a better record against their own division than the Rangers did this season.
The Texas title still runs through Houston
The season does not officially end until Sunday’s finale. One could argue, though, that the competitive aspect of this campaign wrapped up last Wednesday night.
“I think Houston, obviously, is the big one,” right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly said Sunday afternoon. “I think if we went in there and took care of business in Houston, going in there, I think that was kind of the make-or-break series for us. Obviously we didn’t handle business, and after that, the hill became a lot steeper. I think the Houston series was kind of the telling point of where we were going to end up.”
They’ve likely wound up outside of the playoffs for a second-straight season.
They’ve certainly wound up without the outright Silver Boot Series trophy for a eighth-consecutive season.
The Rangers lost the season series vs. their in-state rival, 7-6, for a fifth-straight season. The two teams tied during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season and the Astros won the three years before that. The Rangers have not beaten the Astros outright in the head-to-head showdown since they went 15-4 against their neighbors to the south during the 2016 season.
The Astros won the World Series one year later and, in turn, kickstarted a dynasty that has been a thorn in Dallas-Fort Worth’s side each regular season since.
Here’s one way to lead off the winter
The Rangers, quite literally, need to establish a leadoff hitter.
They entered this season with second baseman Marcus Semien in that role for a fourth-straight year but was demoted after a month-and-a-half of poor production. Super utility man Josh Smith handled the bulk of the leadoff duties after Semien’s shift down the lineup. Manager Bruce Bochy likes the 28-year-old’s profile in the role. It checks out on paper.
The results haven’t for much of the second half. Smith, shifted into an everyday role with shortstop Corey Seager sidelined, has slashed just .209/.305/.273 in 58 second-half games. In the last seven games, while the Rangers have fought for their postseason lives, he went 2 for 22 with six strikeouts.
“I haven’t really done a whole lot on the offensive side to help us out here lately,” Smith said Saturday after he flung his batting helmet into the tunnel after a groundout. “There’s kind of some built up frustration, I kind of just took it out. I’m just frustrated with myself and also I guess with us as well.”
Smith has now gone through post-All-Star Game break slumps in consecutive seasons. Semien, who had a .401 OPS at leadoff this season, has regressed since the World Series and will be 35-years-old next season. Center fielder Evan Carter profiles as a leadoff hitter but has missed more games than he’s played since the start of last year. Langford has the tools for the job but may be needed more in the heart of the order.
Add it to the early offseason to-do list.
A rotation reminder
The Rangers’ rotation allowed more earned runs (22) than its offense scored (19) in the last seven games. We’re no experts, but, that’s bad math.
The rotation yielded a 4.57 ERA in the team’s seven consecutive losses. The two best starters were delivered by left-hander Jacob Latz (4 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the New York Mets Sunday) and right-hander Tyler Mahle (4 2/3 scoreless innings vs. the Marlins Friday). Latz has already been shifted back to the bullpen and Mahle hadn’t pitched in the big leagues for over three months before that game. None of the five pitchers who started games for the Rangers last week worked a quality start.
Their combined season numbers (3.41 ERA in 831 2/3 innings) are still the best in baseball. Consider this last week a reminder of how much the rotation has been asked to shoulder this season. Consider it a reminder of what this year could have looked like if even an average staff were paired with this inconsistent offense.
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Despite a litany of injuries, Texas is in the hunt for a playoff spot as the MLB regular season nears its conclusion.
Rangers’ recent rollercoaster ends in collapse wrought by same yearlong offensive troubles
With key starters injured and the remaining bunch offensively underperforming, Texas’ late-season magic has run out.
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