The Astros had the worst possible outcome in their three game series against the Mariners—swept. The Astros went from tied in the AL West to likely division also-ran. So, where do they go from here. They have six games left to do something.
I will present a brief post on the Astros Fangraphs playoff odds at this point.
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Astros Playoffs (Fangraphs) September 22, 2025
Unsurprisingly, the Astros have very little chance at the division title (1.6%). A chance at the bye is also gone (1.3%). But the Fangraphs model still likes the Astros chances to get a Wild Card berth (64.1%) and make the playoffs (65.7%)
I’m not sure that I have a lot of confidence in the Astros, based on what we saw this weekend, but objectively the Astros have pretty good odds of making the playoffs. Of course these odds are based on Fangraphs’ calculation of the odds for other teams, the most prominent of which are the Red Sox, Guardians, and Tigers.
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Here are the probabilities for those three teams.
Division Odds / Wild Card Odds / Playoff Odds
Red Sox 0.1% / 91.4% / 94.5%
Tigers 63.3% / 21.4% / 84.7%
Guardians 36.8 / 22.1% / 58.3%
The Red Sox are in very good position for one of the Wild Card spots. The Tigers are most likely to win the AL Central division title. The Guardians have lower odds of winning a Wild Card than the Astros, but still have overall playoffs greater than 50-50 because they still have some hope for beating out the Tigers for the division. Fangraphs’ odds lead to an 87 win season for the Astros. Interestingly, the Fangraphs projected standings indicate that the Astros, Red Sox, Tigers, and Guardians may all go 3-3 over the remaining six games.
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The Astros’ final six games are against two lower division teams, the A’s and the Angels. They should win both series. After all, both teams are below .500 level of talent. But the Astros have shown a tendency in 2024 and 2025 to fritter away individual series against teams they are supposed to beat easily. On the season, the Astros are 4-6 vs. the A’s and 6-4 against the Angels. If it makes you feel better, we can combine the records and say that the Astros are 10-8 against the remaining teams on the schedule. But both teams will be up for ruining the Astros season. The A’s and Angels know they have nothing to play for, but they can get motivated to keep the Astros out of the playoffs. That’s what you call division rivalry.
If I were running the Astros I would treat these final six games as a playoff series. The game planning and analytic scouting needs to be turned up to the max. Chandler Rome quoted Jose Altuve: “Obviously, it’s going to be hard, but somehow in these last six games, we have to win games. We have the opportunity to make it to the playoffs.”
The Tigers and Guardians will play each other for three games. The outcome of that series will go a long way to deciding the AL Central title. The three game series is probably a significant reason that the Astros playoff odds are good. The Guardians close out with 3 games against the Rangers. (Cleveland is 0-3 so far against the Rangers.) The Tigers close out with 3 games against the Red Sox. The Red Sox will begin the week with three games against Toronto, which has already clinched a playoff spot. As you can see there are many combinations of outcomes available over this week. It’s not unusual for something unexpected to happen with so many possibilities in play.
Thoughts?