After a series win against the Phillies at Chase Field, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 games and sit only one game back of the third and final National League Wild Card spot.
The D-backs do not control their own destiny, and their playoff odds are only 6.2%, according to FanGraphs. But the Snakes are alive.
The Reds, however, have won five in a row and now sit tied with the Mets for that Wild Card. The Giants, Marlins and Cardinals are also all mathematically still in it, but with combined playoff odds of less than 1%, we’re only focusing on the most likely contenders.
So, who makes it in the event of a tie?
Scenario 1: Diamondbacks tie with either the Mets or the Reds
A two-team tie is settled by looking at the head-to-head records between the teams. If the teams split the season series, the record against opponents within their division is used to determine the winner.
Against the Reds, the D-backs went 2-4 and would lose the tiebreaker.
Against the Mets, the season series was split 3-3. For intradivision records, the D-backs (25-21) have enough of a lead on New York (24-25) that if the two teams end the year tied, Arizona will have the tiebreaker.
All six of the D-backs’ remaining games are against divisional opponents (Dodgers and Padres), while the Mets only have three division games left. So, if the D-backs are going to catch the Mets in the standings, it will be by winning enough intradivision games to take the tiebreaker.
Scenario 2: Diamondbacks, Mets and Reds all tie
A three-team tie is settled by looking at the head-to-head records against each other once again.
The Reds won the season series against the Mets and the D-backs (both 4-2) so in the event of a three-way tie for the final Wild Card spot, Cincinnati would make the playoffs.
