With October looming, San Diego has a chance to clinch a playoff spot against the National League leading Milwaukee Brewers. Here’s what to expect from Petco Park with six regular season games remaining:

The Padres (85-71, 2nd in NL West) came home victorious after their last road trip of the regular season. San Diego bested the much improved, but still rebuilding Chicago White Sox by a final score of 3-2 on Sunday afternoon at Rate Field. While Fernando Tatis Jr. launched his 150th career home run into the left field bleachers, right-hander Michael King tossed five scoreless frames with four strikeouts. Despite issuing four walks and working around traffic on the base paths, it’s the best King has looked since coming off the IL on September 9. The daunting Friar bullpen also got it’s moment to shine in the finale. Adrian Morejon escaped a bases loaded, no outs jam unharmed after picking up two punch outs and closer Robert Suarez collected his NL leading 40th save of the season with a 1-2-3 ninth.

The Brewers (95-61, 1st in NL Central) dropped two of three to the St. Louis Cardinals after falling flat in the series finale. Milwaukee starter Robert Gasser and veteran Erick Fedde combined to allow five earned runs and five walks through the contest’s first seven innings. Their lone run came in the fifth, thanks to a Jackson Chourio sacrifice fly. Despite the 5-1 loss, the Brew Crew captured the NL Central crown for a third consecutive season, after the Chicago Cubs were shutout 1-0 by the red-hot Cincinnati Reds.

Pitching matchups

Monday: Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.65 ERA) vs. Padres RHP Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.81 ERA) 6:40 p.m. PT

The first contest of the three game set features both rotation anchors squaring up. Starting with All-Star ace Freddy Peralta going for Milwaukee. The 29 year-old is in the midst of a career best season and showed out again against the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing. He tossed six innings while only allowing one run and striking out 10 Halos hitters. In six appearances versus San Diego, Peralta owns a 2-1 record with 26 strikeouts and a 2.86 ERA.

Nick Pivetta takes the bump for the Padres against the Crew. Also in the middle of a career year, Pivetta struck out five but allowed three runs in his most recent start against the New York Mets. Since the start of August, he’s delivered seven quality outings. He’s 8-1 this season at home with a 2.22 ERA and 108 strikeouts.

Tuesday: Brewers TBD vs. Padres RHP Randy Vásquez (5-7, 3.94 ERA) 6:40 p.m. PT

Story will be updated once Milwaukee has announced a starting pitcher for Tuesday’s game.

He’s known as Mr. Reliable around downtown San Diego. Randy Vásquez makes his 26th start of the year in the series’ middle game. Throughout the last couple of weeks, the right-hander has earned at least some consideration to pitch out of the bullpen for the Padres in October. Vásquez threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the Brewers on June 6 He struck out two and gave up two hits.

Wednesday: Brewers RHP Quinn Priester (13-2, 3.25 ERA vs. Padres TBD 1:10 p.m. PT

To close out Wednesday’s finale, Quinn Priester takes the mound for his last start before the postseason. The 18th overall pick in the 2019 draft has carved quite a place for himself in the Brewers rotation. He’s 8-0 in his last 14 starts and has better numbers pitching on the road than at his home turf. In away starts this year, Priester is 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA  and 69 punch outs. 

Story will be updated once San Diego has announced a starter for Wednesday’s game.

‘El Niño’ powering up for October?

There’s no doubt Fernando Tatis Jr. was made for the bright lights of October baseball. He was arguably the hottest hitter on the planet throughout the 2024 postseason and has already amassed a multitude of moments in just two different playoff runs. At points this season, Tatis has been mired in power-less slumps. There’s been concern on if he has the capability to carry a Padres team that, overall, doesn’t hit for much power, the same way he did last October.

Well, it seems he’s found his power stroke. At least for the moment. Tatis clobbered his 23rd homer of the season on Sunday against the White Sox. The blast traveled 432 ft. with a registered exit velocity of 111.7 mph off the bat. In his last 15 games, he’s slashing .311/.368/.508 with. four home runs, eight RBIs, and a .876 OPS. 

If there was ever time for ‘Nando to start mashing baseballs agin, now is the perfect time. In 13 career postseason games, Tatis is hitting at a .375 clip with six home runs, three doubles, 12 RBIs, and a 1.328 OPS.

Early takeaways

Coming into the series opener against Milwaukee, the Padres’ magic number sits at one. With a win on Monday night, or any combination of a San Diego win or Mets loss throughout the week, the Padres will officially clinch a postseason berth in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2006. With the likeliest scenario being a road Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, there is still a path to the Friars hosting the first round of the playoffs.

Over the final six games of the regular season, San Diego would have to gain three games on the Cubs to host the Wild Card round for a second straight year. Tie breaker implications would fall in favor of the Padres if both clubs finish the campaign with identical records. The season series between them finished at 3-3, but San Diego has the better intra-division record between the two.

Chicago is currently on a four game losing streak after being swept in Cincinnati and face the Mets, who are fighting for their own playoff lives, next. This current Cubs slide could ultimately benefit the Padres in bringing the first stop of October to Petco Park. But first, the Friars need to hold their own against a first place club and spoil a late run by the always gritty, Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s won’t be easy by any means, but not impossible. 

The bigger picture: The winner of Padres/Cubs would move onto the National League Division Series to face… the Brewers. The Friars could use this series as a buffer to a potential five-game showdown against the Crew in October.

Noteworthy: Padres SS Xander Bogaerts is expected to be activated at some point throughout the three-game series versus Milwaukee. Bogaerts landed on the IL on August 29 due to a left foot non-displaced fracture. He’s expected to be full-go for the commencement of the 2025 Postseason.